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The Ultimate FIFA Mobile Market Guide

The Ultimate FIFA Mobile Market Guide
Hey everyone I'm back! Finally I'm here with the most requested guide since last season. I've attempted to write the most extensive and detailed guide for the market, because of which I have split the guide into several sections. I've tried to cover everything and hopefully have something for everyone in this guide. There's even a TLDR at the bottom if anyone's short on time.

  1. Introduction
  2. My Journey
  3. Market (Bot) Basics
  4. How to Buy and Sell
  5. Where to Start?
  6. All the Coin Making Methods
  7. Investments
  8. Some of My Successful Investments
  9. Personal Tips
  10. Conclusion

1. Introduction

So this guide should cover everything about the market, even if you feel you know how some things work, I'd strongly suggest reading up every section as there's always something important that you might not yet know. One very important note is that what I'm sharing in this guide has worked over two seasons for me, the last one and the current (wasn't very active prior to then). From personal experience I can say, as I've delineated in the Investments section, every other method might fail, but investments have proven to be always reliable.

I keep getting messages where people ask what's my secret. Hell no, there's always been one reply, investments. It's in fact the easiest and least time consuming method as well. So rather than looking for tricks and secrets in this guide, just try to understand everything and I'm sure that's gonna be enough to help you build your fortune.

Based on your experience level, here are my tips on how to take full advantage of this guide:

A) Beginner - You have barely any coins and little market knowledge. Understand the market bot and master how to buy and sell first. This is in fact a golden opportunity for you as most people I know get far with coins but miss several tricks on how to maximise your profits from the market. Thoroughly understand the basics and the rest will follow.

B) Intermediate - You probably have a lot of coins and a solid team but that's mainly through playing events and selling players. Well you guys probably fall into the bracket of players who grind a lot but don't invest time into the market. It could be for two reasons - a) you always found the market a very complicated thing to master and never ended up spending much time there. Stop and read this guide then, it doesn't make sense if you ignore the biggest aspect of this game and grind some boring events non stop; or b) you don't enjoy the market. In this case, it's valid and I respect that you're able to make this decision for yourself. No need to mess with the market if you rather enjoy the game then.

C) Expert - You probably are a good trader and have a fairly huge coin balance already. Keep going then! You're almost there, as I'll highlight in the investment section, believe in the doubling formula. Keep doing what got you this far, or if you feel that's not good enough anymore, head over to my personal tips section and let me refresh you with new ideas.

2. My Journey


Reaching my Billion coins goal in S2
Reaching my Billion coins goal in S3

Hey so this section should serve as an inspiration for you on your road to becoming a billionaire! I started with nothing just as all you guys. My initial two months this season weren't very eventful as I was just getting acquainted with the game. As always my first break came around w TOTY. Investments were ripe and I hit 100m+ by the end of it. I got a decent coin boost through the kit squad requirements and subsequently the UCL tournament. Other than that it's only been investments. I struggled to get anything going initially, not getting any successful methods and barely making significant coins. That's when I fell back to my age old formula, value investing. Before I knew it, with every card I invested in, I was making 10-20m. This was huge because I traded a lot of cards, often filling my inventory (currently filled as well). I was never first to CUs and rarely used any other methods. But once my investments started to click, there was no looking back. 150m became 300m. I invested all if it. Got back 100m through some sales and events. Invest it back and down to no coins. Sell some stuff and am up to 300m but let most of my investments remain. Next thing I know, I cleared most of my investments and I crossed 1bil in under a week! The last sale being the POTM Sancho that I somehow managed to sell at CU (Content Update). And that was it. I'm currently en route 2bil but coins are the least of my issues. So yeah, we all start from somewhere. Don't think your coin balance is too low or it's too late. If you commit to it, it's always possible. In fact it was way easier for me this season and I'm sure you guys will catch along as well. So on we go!

In any investment you expect to have fun and make money. - Michael Jordan

3. The Market (Bot) Basics

So first let's get acquainted with all the market terminology.

BID Price - It is the price at which you can bid for a card. Essentially for any card you see, the BID Price is the price at which another user sold the card on the market. So your cards selling price corresponds to the BID price of it's actual market listing.

BIN Price - This is the price at which you can directly buy a card off the market. The BIN Price of any market listing is determined by the market bot.

Bot - It is basically the algorithm using which the market functions. We refer to it as a Bot to generalise all of the market algorithms actions, as that of a robot. The FM market is not an open market, instead it is regulated. The market bot buys and sells cards, it is not a direct interface between the users. This was done to avoid coin selling.

Bidding - The bidding though is live and you engage with other users in bidding wars. Bid listings disappear from the market if they go below 30 seconds, even if there is an active bid war. Bid resets at 15 seconds, and it doesn't automatically refresh on time, so keep switching between tabs to see the latest bid.

Price Caps - If you notice, the market algorithm works in such a way that the card listings are segregated in various price levels. These levels are termed as price Caps. Caps indicate the ceiling price at which you can sell the card based on current demand and supply. When you sell a card to the market, the BIN price of your listed card usually indicates the current price cap. Remember when new cards launch, they are listed at the highest price cap. As supply increases, the current price cap falls. That is why you often see more expensive cards listed on the market, they were sold early on when the price cap was high. Lower price cap can hold more cards than higher price caps in the inventory.

Inventory - The market bot can hold only a fixed amount of cards at a particular price cap. This size is known as the inventory. Inventory size varies at each price cap. What you see on the market are the current cards in inventory. There are also other cards in its listing queue, which the bot can buy from user if triggered by demand.

Listing Queue - When you sell a card to the market and it is waiting for a trigger to sell, we say that the card is currently in the listing queue. If within the price cap, if you listed first, your card should be the first to sell when triggered.

Window - The market buys and sells cards in windows of 5 mins. If you keep refreshing, you'll see the bot lists cards exactly 5 mins apart. Sometimes you'll see multiple listings, that's because there are more than 1 window during which the bot is listing cards. Really helpful to keep a timer and snipe using these windows.

CU (Content Update) - This is an in app update (not required to update from the app store), when game files are added/updated. This is usually when event cards such as TOTW become tradable. It's useful to be informed about when CU takes place and list cards as soon as tradable to sell for the best price. Selling early means there's no/few other cards on the market and the price caps are still high. Eventually as supply increases, the card falls down to it's actual value.

Trigger - Now the market bot will only buy a card from you if it has a sufficient demand. How is this demand calculated? It is done through triggers. When you buy a card, the bot checks its inventory if it has enough supply. If not, you just triggered the bot to buy another card from some user who listed it.

Important points about the trigger:
  • They work within price caps. Even if triggered, your card won't sell if it's above the price cap.
  • If you're selling a high rated and rare card, it takes time to trigger. I always suggest listing such cards for 24h within the correct price cap.
  • When you sell a new card that becomes tradable (such as TOTW), avoid undercutting it doesn't matter. As long as you're fast enough and you list the card within the price cap, your card should sell. If curious, after selling check the market for that card with the same BID price as your BIN price. Now the BIN price at which the bot listed it, is how high you could have also listed it, as that's the price cap ceiling.

Thus you can picture the market bot to be a store dealer.
  • It is a listing interface that other users can see, but can't be use to directly interact with other users.
  • Only the market bot decides what, when and at what price to buy. You can also only buy from the market bot based on what it has listed.
  • He buys your card if it has place in its inventory. It lists this card with a BID price that indicates your selling price.
  • If you buy a card, and the inventory has space, the bot will buy a card that another user might have listed to re-stock it's inventory.
  • For all these services, initially it charges you a 5% tax.

Some important characteristics of the market:
  1. There are 3 markets in game. That means you belong to 1 of the 3 possible markets that have totally different listings. These markets are not region based and there is no logic behind which market you are assigned. It is random and cannot be changed. Prices are usually similar on these markets though. This was done to prevent coin selling and market manipulation.
  2. To avoid extinction of any card, last season after SBC launch we had a market feature introduced where the bot listed cards at the highest price cap. This listing was the highest possible listing of the card. When the first card is listed on the market, it triggers the bot to generate this artificial listing. There is only 1 of these and it is at the highest cap. This explains how the rare cards never go extinct and are always available even if people keep buying them at cap.
  3. The market charges a 5% tax as I mentioned on all sales. At VIP Level 10 though, you get the perk of this tax being removed. It is very crucial as it saves a lot of coins in the long run and lets you trade closer to the margins.
  4. The maximum coins that you can hold at a time is 2.1bil, more specifically 2,147,483,647. Wonder why? It's actually funny because EA has coded the coin balance as an integer and that is the maximum value of an integer. Thus your coin balance resets if you go beyond that mark. You'll have to manually communicate with EA to restore the coins then. Not a problem many would have tho lol.

4. How to buy and sell

So before I explain how to best buy or sell a card consider which of the following 3 scenarios is the market currently in:
  1. Stable - Prices are more or less the same through the day/week.
  2. Rising - The card is being bought at the cheapest price and its BIN is constantly rising.
  3. Crashing - There is a large supply of the card and not enough buyers. So people keep undercutting and the card price keeps falling over time.

Selling a card:
Now to sell a card, you have to select an appropriate BIN price that the bot will buy at. Remember to never put a low BID price since this is not an open market, so no one other then the bot can bid. The bot will end up bidding a very low price to buy your card. To select the best BIN price, identify what scenario the card market belongs to and do the following:
  1. Stable - List the card at a BIN that's slightly below the lowest current BID price or if you're anticipating a rise, then at exactly the lowest selling BID price. It should comfortably sell.
  2. Rising - List at a higher price cap. Easy way to identify this is to see the BIN price of the card with lowest BID price. For example, I had to sell TOTW 86 Alba LB. There were two listings at 2.5m BIN (with a low BID) and one at 2.8m BIN, rest all being higher. I managed to sell my cards at 2.8m BIN quickly as there was more demand than supply.
  3. Crashing - If you sense a crash, take the hit and sell at 10% lesser than current cheapest BID price. This can help offload a card quickly which could be headed towards a crash due to large supply (usually when people claim event cards).

Top - Cheapest cards on the market, Bottom Left - My cards selling for a higher price, and Bottom Right - Bot listing my cards, close to the current price cap.

Tips:
  • I always list cards for 24h and they usually sell. That's because prices fluctuate a lot within 24h and leaving it listed for that long means you're always in the queue for your card to sell, instead of constantly relisting and wasting time.
  • In order to efficiently sell high rated cards that cost a lot and are low in supply, you need to master the price caps to gain maximum profit.
  • Understand the concept of triggers to ensure you sell at the maximum price.
Please note, the automatic sell price feature will be back soon, so you may not need to master this aspect. Still this helps if you're engaging with investments.

Buying a card:
This is similar to the When to buy section under Investments so please look it up there.

5. Where to Start?

Best way to start is by figuring out what your goals are. Have some realistic goals that you will set out to achieve. Plan towards it. As I said, master buying and selling to the bot. This will not only increase your confidence, but you are also assured that you get the best price, which is already being ahead of the curve. Based on your current capital and understanding, start investing in some players that are guaranteed to profit (highlighted in the personal tips section). Buy them at the right time and sell at the right time. Got a decent profit? Now rinse and repeat. Yet don't let this take away the fun of playing other game modes, market activity usually consumes very little time.

6. All the Coin Making Methods

A) Sniping

Now as we know, sniping is pretty much dead. Even if a card is listed for really cheap, the cards are listed on the market for a significantly higher price. There may be some occasional snipes, but usually there's very little profit there. An effective sniping filter would be putting up a low BID price on cards that just got released on the market (like event cards).

Useful Sniping Tips: You should first find out the 5 min window between which cards are being listed, and set a timer so you hit refresh exactly when new cards drop. This technique helps in sniping cards quickly. Also don't hit Refresh while sniping, hit search and search the same settings again to see latest listings. Refresh shows cached listings which may be old. Using search button twice to refresh listings ensures you get the latest snipes. This is how experts snipe cards for cheap quickly.

Several people confuse sniping with investing. While it's true that when investing you try to buy the cheapest cards, investing is usually long term with a calculated reasoning to buy. Sniping is just randomly buying whatever pops cheap and selling back quickly.

B) Bidding

Another popular method, here people bid on cards at a price that is significantly cheaper than its current BIN price. Bidding is often done on new event players that users sold for too cheap or rare cards that sell for a high price. Bidding can often yield a large amount of profit, even on a single card. It is essential to know price caps very well though, so that you can sell the card back at the right price.


Example of making coins from the bidding method. Bottom Left - Only other card on market after I bought one card on bid, Bottom Right - My card sold, and Top - Bot listing my card on the market.

The drawbacks of this method are:
  • It is very risky as you could trigger another card to sell or a cheaper listing appears
  • Often involves a lot of coins for expensive cards
  • It is very time consuming as often you'll come across a lot of other people bidding on it
  • Bidding usually requires you to be online when the card expires to ensure you win the bid
  • Luck plays a role as not very often will you find such rare cards with low BID prices.

PSA: The next methods are illegal. Any form of market bot manipulation is deemed illegal by EA TOS and they have the rights to ban your account for doing so. I have listed them just for explanation purposes.

C) Market Manipulation

(i) Extinction (also called Silver method)
Here you buy out all the cheap listings of a card and sell higher once the supply is dead. You basically drive a rare card extinct and then sell back to the bot at the highest price caps. Now in case anyone is curious, this method is really time consuming and the profits are marginal. It would take you forever to make coins doing this.

(ii) Momentum Trading (also called Flipping)
Similar to the previous method, here you buy out listings of a card at the lowest (current) price range and sell cards at the next higher price range using your cards as trigger. So you are effectively creating artificial demand and forcing the bot to raise the price cap. Same as above though, the profits in this method are negligible and losses are frequent.

D) Playing the game

Yes even through grinding events and packs you can make a lot of coins. But the trade off here is that there's always better value in choosing SB over coins, and event players quickly lose value so the coin return is relatively poor. Gaining coins from other methods is advised and events are a great way to gain SBs and exclusive players.

Selling cards as soon as they are tradable or when a new event drops can be really profitable.

7. Investing

With all the other methods providing discouraging results, there's only one method that has consistently had great coin returns. That's investing, where you buy some cards based on their intrinsic value and sell back when they rise. Pretty easy right? But your coin returns will still be relatively poor unless you master the investing techniques. You need to pick the right card, at the right price and sell back at the right price.

Now I'll break down all the investment strategies that will provide a solid guideline on how to invest.

A) How to select a card to invest in?

It's easy actually. People tend to think only a few good cards are worth investing in cause others are too low rated or not good enough. You need to keep in mind, there are thousands of new players who will just buy whatever is cheap and fitting. This way a lot of cards are valuable if they are simply cheap enough. In general these are the factors you should consider for successful investments:
  • Position
  • Real Life Popularity
  • Stats
  • Skill Boost
  • Skill Move
  • League
  • Nation
  • Event Exclusivity

Invest only if you would be comfortable owning a stock even if you had no way of knowing its daily share price. - Benjamin Graham

B) When to buy cards?

You can make profit off even a bad card if you buy it at the right time. That's what I have done a lot, and it works great cause people don't often look at bad cards for investing.

Ideally these are the scenarios when you should buy cards:
  1. When the card becomes tradable and is large in supply. This applies well to TOTW and pack only cards. But be careful, people usually end up doing the momentum trading method in the name of investing in TOTW cards and drive their price up high initially. Wait and let the prices bottom out. As for pack only cards, they are a gold mine IMO, as they crash heavily when available and rise quickly as there's no supply left. For event cards, buy at the end of the event as that's when prices are at the lowest as everyone has claimed their rewards.
  2. During a heavy market crash. When new cards become tradable like above, people tend to panic sell or undercut each other to the point where some cards are available at an insane value. If you buy at the bottom of the market crash you're guaranteed to make good profit.
  3. Before some sort of coins influx. If everyone is getting coins through some event node or reward, anticipate the market inflation and invest in good cards. Last year when everyone claimed the LNY coin reward, we saw the most extreme market inflation ever in FM history. Most cards went extinct and mad profits were to be made. You may think these events happen rarely, but it's enough to more than double your coins, so always be on the watch for any sort of coin influx.

C) How many cards to buy?

You can’t afford something unless you can buy it twice. - Jay-Z

A word of caution, never invest beyond your means. Only invest heavily when you're very confident. For example I have over 500m invested currently and that's not even half my coin balance so it's still safe. Usually to start with buy around 2m-5m worth of a particular card. Most of my investments are 10m into a card and more recently I've pushed to 20m-40m. But don't go all in unless you know what you're doing. There's a thin line between investing and price manipulation by buying out all cards. Don't do that. Invest, don't influence the prices.

D) When to sell your investments?

This is more important than when to buy. I'll tell you guys, I have received dozens of DMs where people ask who to invest in, what will get easy profit, etc. The one thing they don't understand is that investments are believing a card is worth much more than its current value. I've made 100% profit overnight and even after 2 months some cards gave back only 50% profit. My strict answer to anyone who asks when to sell is, don't invest if you can't wait. There's ideally never a fixed duration in which a card will realise its value. Well yes, usually it does take my investments 1-2 weeks to rise on an average, but I don't fret if it takes longer. That's why I say invest within your means. Take the current market for example, it's TOTS season and we are headed towards a sustained market crash. With a lot of OP cards coming in every week, prices keep falling. It will obviously hit rock bottom when starters become tradable.

You'll also get better at it over time. I remember mass investing in TOTY Hernandez cause he seemed to be a very valuable card going for a measly 260-300k. I bought 40 of him back when I didn't have many coins. Sure enough, he was the first to rise. He got to 700k quickly and I thought it was good enough to book my profits. I was wrong though, he went on to rise upto 1.1m soon enough. I learnt well from it, and had one of my most successful investment in 85 Carniball Animated LB Schulz. Bought 100 at 200k. Sold at 880k, which was his maximum price. Pretty much a perfect investment I'd say.

E) At what price to sell?

Take a cue from my How to sell section and identify which state is the card in currently. Ideally it shouldn't ever be crashing if you've bought it at its lowest price. If its rising, let it keep rising. Don't hesitate to wait for a day to observe how high can it go. Once it becomes stable I always suggest matching the current going price (BIN not BID) as the supply for the card should be over. That way you get the maximum profit. Also look to push for the next higher price cap over the current one. If demand is decent and supply is less, the bot will naturally buy cards at a higher price cap. Keep experimenting this for a few times, and I'm sure you'll understand how to get the best price for your cards.

8. Some of My Successful Investments

It's obviously hard to understand all of this without some realistic examples. So here I'll present some of my investments that I can recollect (in no particular order) and I hope it can give you a good idea on what cards to pick and what profits can you expect from them. I have not included UCL players as their prices were heavily influenced by the tournament requirements (I had many of them that went up 10x). Also I have not included any of my current investments (such as Easter cards and several masters) even if they are already giving profits.

Player Card Bought At Quantity Sold At
TOTW 86 Alba 700k 15 2.8m
TOTW 85 Parejo 300k 50 600k
CNBL Animated 85 Schulz 200k 100 880k
CNBL Animated 86 Luiz 375k 40 800k
TOTW 83 Depay 120k 25 400k
TOTW 80 Criscito 160k 100 350k
STPD 87 Hendricks 180k 50 600k
STPD 86 Cunningham 280k 60 900k
STPD 85 Davis 180k 50 580k
TOTW 85 Varane 250k 50 600k
TOTW 85 Pjanic 250k 50 570k
TOTW 84 Fekir 230k 100 500k
TOTW 80 Deulofeu 120k 100 225k
TOTY 83 Hernandez 300k 40 700k
TOTY 85 Carvajal 400k 20 950k
TOTY 84 Walker 300k 50 700k
FF 83 Gasper 250k 20 400k
LLR 86 Gasper 400k 40 600k
CNBL 90 Werner 3m 5 4m
TOTW 88 Di Maria 400k 50 900k
TOTW 85 Fabinho 500k 10 1m
TOTW 85 Veratti 220k 50 500k
TOTW 83 Marquinhos 280k 50 500k
TOTW 83 De Vrij 200k 50 400k
TOTW 83 Carvajal 230k 20 700k
VSA 84 Paulinho 800k 2 1.8m
VSA 86 Ward Prowse 1.5m 3 2.5m
TOTY 87 Umtiti 1.5m 5 2.2m
TOTY 87 Alba 1.1m 5 1.9m

9. Personal Tips

Okay, so these are some of my trade secrets you could say. A combination of these tips has been a focal part of my successful investment formula.

  1. The most valuable position cards are in the following order: LB, RB, CB, CM, GK, ST.
  2. Whenever the market crashes or there is an inflation happening, my biggest advice is to understand why is it happening. This understanding is invaluable, because once you can reason out the market movements, you can predict future market activity and profit from it. I highly recommend you to observe the big market movements to start with, and then down to the smaller ones. This will unlock some evident profit patterns.
  3. Invest at a particular price cap that is the lowest, cards will keep popping.
  4. if you buy in bulk, keep refreshing. You'll trigger a cheap listing that you can snipe.
  5. VSA/H2H season end coin rewards give cheap cards a decent push.
  6. Elites > Masters. For every 1m rise in a master card, 100 elites can get you 10m profit in the same time. It's a very common trend. For example people were riding the TOTW Messi hype and he actually did profit by 2m. But meanwhile I invested heavily in TOTW Parejo and his price doubled in the same time. 100% profit > 25%. Also elites are much safer to invest in cause they're usually close to TXP value.
  7. Stay in touch with the community, and be around during weekend resets. New stuff usually drops then and you could gain some valuable info early on.
  8. Check the market daily. This helps you understand all the price caps very well and it's easy for you to figure out which cards will be valuable in the future.
  9. Check similar cards before you invest. They're likely higher, and take that price as the profit benchmark.
  10. Always have investments in inventory, idle coins is wasted coins. Sell useless players (especially high rated cards) whose opportunity cost is very high, as you could instead invest those coins elsewhere.
  11. Keep scaling investments. After your first few profits, put all that money back into new investments. I always believe in the 2x formula. If I have 10m, I should have 20m at the end of my investments. Then 40m and so on. It's easy to reach a billion if you follow that policy.
  12. I highly suggest using a rental team (that's what I call it). I don't have a single trained player in my team, I just keep buying cheap high rated players. That way I never make a loss when I want to change SB or try new formations or cards. I also get to play with a wide variety of cards and am never stuck because of TXP. I'd really suggest that as then you'll suddenly realise you have a lot more coins. Training low rated players and tweaking them usually results in a loss if you change anything in the team. Train only when you're certain or when you can afford to.
  13. The most bizarre tip you'll read. There is always a guaranteed profit to be made. This is true, as long as you buy at the right time and hold on for long enough, every card is eventually going to rise. The trick is to obviously buy the good cards that will give much more profit in a shorter time. If you've glanced through my investments you'll see a lot of average cards that I bought at discard value gave me amazing returns.

The most important investment you can make is in yourself. - Warren Buffet


Example of my current rental team. All players are untrained and auctionable.

10. Conclusion

So this is the end of the guide and I hope it was of use to all of you guys. I hope I covered everything about the market and answered your doubts. Keep in mind the market is currently crashing due to the TOTS supply, so don't expect any immediate profits. Please feel free to ask any questions in the comments section below, I'll make sure to reply to everyone. This one is for the community, thanks to all of y'all FM has been such a fun journey.

TLDR:
  1. First master how to buy and sell to the bot.
  2. Observe and figure out when to buy and sell cards. Look for patterns and understand what influences the market.
  3. Invest when you think a card is worth more than its current price. Investing in value will always give you profits.

Good Luck Everyone!
submitted by MrKotia to FUTMobile

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