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The Underlying Choice: Picking a 6.0 Mil £ Striker
Hi FPL Community,submitted by nevermind721 to FantasyPL
Thanks for the great feedback! This type of analysis seems to help, so here's the next one (as wished in several comments): 6.0 strikers! The 3 most chosen forwards at this price point are Glenn Murray, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Danny Ings. I added Deulofeu for reference (my preferred 6.5 Mil forward, see post yesterday) and have another surprise comparison below.
1) Underlying Stats:
Link to Pic
Wowsy, that's clearer than expected. First, focus your attention on the red octagon. Danny Ings eats the others for fkin breakfast. He is better than both Calvert-Lewin and Murray in EVERY SINGLE underlying aspect, and partly by a landslide. Of course there are caveats to Ings (will come to that), but for now, let's keep it at "Danny Ings is a star based on underlying stats".
On to white (Murray) and blue (DCL). Glenn Murray offers literally nothing besides occasional scoring. His numbers for "Shots" and "Touches in Box" are outstandingly shitty for a target striker. On top of that, if Murray plays EVERY game and plays 90 minutes in every game, he will have roughly 1 assist after 25 (!) games. Here is a shortlist of players with more expected assists than Murray last season: Ogbonna, Bardsley, Hadergjonaj (thanks, copy paste!). That's how little he provides for Brighton. These numbers suggest that last season, he played closer to his ceiling than to his floor. A new coach and new offensive system might bring some relief, but there is a long way to go. And don't forget, he will be 36 soon.
DCL is slightly better in all stats expect "Expected Goals". Since he is so young, there might be some room for growth. Still, when you compare him to Deulofeu, you see that you better turn every stone to find those 0.5 mil extra. Whilst they are similary dangerous (xG, Shots, Shots in Box etc.), Deulofeu is on another planet in terms of creating and creativity. Thus, you can expect more assists from Deulofeu.
Both Ings and Murray are penalty takers for their respective clubs.
How good was Ings? Check out this comparison with a no-name 9.5 mil striker:
2A) Nailedness / Minutes:
Calvert-Lewin: Pretty much nailed by now. Didn't start much until winter, but conquered a place from there. Let's see what Everton does in the Transfer window.
Ings: Soton brought in additional competition (Che Adams), but based on Ings' great performances whenever he played, he should start if he is 100% fit.
Murray: Stiff competition from Andone, who is about 10 years younger.
In summary, slight advantage for DCL (if Everton doesn't get another striker). High risk for Murray. With Ings, it's about his fitness - story of his career.
2B) Schedule (first 4 - FDR):
DCL: cry, WAT, ava, WOL (FDR 10)
Ings: bur, LIV, bha, MUN (FDR 12)
Murray: wat, WHU, SOU, mci (FDR 12)
Advantage DCL. Don't have to tell anyone in this sub that Everton's schedule is a cakewalk until December.
Ditch Murray. Seriously, this guy has hardly any upside. The floor is that Andone conquers his spot already for GW1. He is a simple, old-school "tap-in" forward and shouldn't be someone a new coach builds his philosophy upon - both for his antiquated playing style and his age. DCL also makes little sense, when Deulofeu (or for that matter, Jota and King) provide substantially more for only 500k extra. Only get DCL if you expect a substantial jump in development. And factor in that if he doesn't score, there won't be many points coming in via assists or bonus.
Ings is the clear front-runner here. His injury history is admittedly creepy, but we are talking about a 6 million player. He couldn't stay on the pitch in the past, but he seems fully fit now and even if it doesn't work, not much is lost. I am confident that he'll have a nailed spot in the squad over the one-dimensional Long or unproven Adams if he can stay fit. My strategy in general is "not lose with expensive players and win with cheap players". A player with Firmino upside for 1.5 mil above min price, who probably takes penalties and who is owned below 5%? Sign me up for this very risky differential!
But this risk-affinity is pretty subjective. Fully understand if you first want to see that Ings can keep his bones together and Southampton some difficult opponents out of the way.
In any case though, don't get Murray.
Chicharito: CLICK - Not bad, but keep in mind that per minute numbers are skewed since he was often subbed in.
Premium mids (11.5 - 12.5 mil): Salah, Sterling, Mane
Quality mids (7.5 - 8 mil): Fraser, Bilva, Siggy, Pulisic
Sub-premium mids (7 mil): Zaha, Maddison, Mili, Anderson
Bargain mids (6.5 mil): Perez, Brooks, Tielemans
Premium strikers (11 - 12 mil): Aguero, Auba, Kane
Almost-premium-strikers (8.5 - 9.5 mil): Firmino, Lacazette, Vardy, Rashford
Quality strikers (7.5 - 8 mil): Wilson, Jimenez
I (23M) accidentally got my coworker/former FWB's (25F) abusive ex (25M) fired, now she will barely speak to me. How can I repair this relationship?
About 6 months ago, she starts flirting super hard with me and we end up starting a friends-with-benefits situation. It was going great, she was very emotionally intense. Saying stuff like "thanks for being you <3 <3 I feel so alive with you." I told her I was falling for her and she told me she was catching feelings too.
Steven finds out about us and freaks out on her. She calls me in tears telling me that he's threatening to confront me at work, ruin our reputations, etc etc. She then tells me of a long history of emotional abuse from Steven, all in tears. She ends up kicking Steven out. About a month later, she ended things with no warning, saying she has to focus on herself.
Somehow, during this time, she allowed Steven to move back in. He is now paying her rent while she goes to school, which is how she justified the decision (she lives in a 1br, he sleeps on a bed in the living room).
She starts flirting with me super hard again. I confront her and she admits that she's still "lusting". I tell her I am too, and she says she's down to try something again, but only once she manages to kick Steven out again (she had at this point realized that they cannot possibly coexist peacefully). Soon after, I get a Snapchat from her saying "I'm 0% okay, I have to text you some fucked up shit that Steven is making me send you, please don't think it's real life". So then I get a text from her "We shouldn't hang out any more. Thanks for understanding."
She's told me she's "literally dying" living with him. She's told me "she's 0% ok". He's threatened to confront me and her at work. I had an emotional breakdown 2 weeks ago at work and told someone that he was a predator and I didn't want to work with him. That person told the head chef, who talked to a couple other people. Other ppl said they didn't feel safe around him either, and he was fired.
She's gone from flirting super hard to barely tolerating my presence. She put in her notice, and won't respond to me or even really talk to me at all. I apologized and explained myself, she told me to apologize to Steve. He's just been making her life worse at home now. I'm so scared I fucked up her life AND fucked up my relationship with her... I love her.
tl,dr: Coworker and I have a fling, her abusive ex who is also our coworker and her roommate finds out, starts making her life worse, starts making her promise not to hang out with me. I tell someone at work about his abuse/threats, getting him fired. Now she won't speak to me.