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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built inSome people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trustSince the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not goldGold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
- Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
- Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
BTC is really riskyOne last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
- A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
- Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
- Any event that shatters shared trust in BTC:
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficientBlockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
- BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
- A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
- There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
I keep getting found on things by someone despite blocking and avoiding them *UPDATE*
So I am now 16, turned 16 a few days ago and recently I have been playing games on Roblox with my best friend like murder mystery 2, arsenal, etc and one of the games I play on my own is Adopt Me because I like all the pets they have. I am writing this minutes after it happened, I was playing Adopt Me after my classes since we have short periods for school on Mondays so it was 11:52-ish and now it's 12:07. There was this player who had a variation of my stalkers name with random numbers after, and I stupidly thought nothing of it, instead I thought "Oh it's a pretty common name" which it is, but I couldn't shake off this feeling and then that person kept following me, and I again was stupid, and thought "They probably wanna trade since I have an ultra-rare pet" so I stopped driving but that trade invitation never came.
So me being me, I left and went to the campsite since my pet wanted to go there. Everything was fine until I was going back to my home in the game, until that user put "Hey *My name*" and I didn't think anything was wrong until I did a double take and realized my name isn't on my Roblox account and on my Roblox account I only have three friends, and all three of them call me either by my alias that I made for my books/future podcast or by my Roblox name whenever we play.
I didn't respond to the message, and instead just acted like if I didn't see it, while the other players were asking the user "Who's *My Name*"
The player then kept on following me around, until I left the game, and even then he sent me a friend request which I denied and immediately blocked
That wasn't the only thing he's done since my last update on the story, he found out about this guy I'm talking to somehow (the guy isn't from California) and he told one of his "friends" (I say friends with the quotations because he has yelled at that friend for talking to me or even being near me before, and that friend happens to be a very close friend of mine), and that friend (B) told me what happened, and how he freaked out but couldn't do anything due to the guy not being in California and seeing that he was scary looking to my stalker (the guy is a huge softie so it made me laugh knowing that).
After I was told that he had somehow been stalking my followers/followings I blocked people that would know him and possibly let him use their account to look at mine. I updated my brother (legal guardian) and my friends that knew about him, so they would know and even told the guy in case my stalker had the idea to message him and tell him a complete lie. As previously, the stalker had messaged a close friend of mine and told him we were dating (me and my stalker) in an attempt to get my friend to stop talking to me. He even told that same friend that he was going to marry me and that we were going to have two kids (which is a huge lie, because 1. I don't want kids and if I ever do I'll adopt and 2. If I get married it will most likely be to the guy I am talking to right now or to a woman) luckily no one believed him except his friends who were saying that it would happen one day, and to just keep trying to be with me (I overheard once and was disgusted and told two of my friend D and B about it to which they got mad and refused to let him near me whenever he tried to talk to me. Even now we're not in those classes (D and B are still in classes with my stalker) we are still close and they tell me whenever they overhear my stalkers friends giving him ideas.
In my last update I left out a piece of information due to me not having the full story, until my friend (B) told me the rest that I needed after it was posted and I didn't want to assume anything or give possibly false information.
Rewinding to freshman year, on Valentine's day I found I huge stuffed bear in my math class, and it was on my seat. So I thought someone had left it there, and when the teacher came into the class, I told him that someone left a huge stuffed bear behind, to which my teacher responded "That wasn't there in my previous class, someone probably left it there for you. Maybe a secret admirer" (me and my math teacher have a father and daughter bond so we play around like that)
We ended up looking into the packaging cause our curiosity got the best in us, and it had a letter, I still vibrantly remember it because it creeped me out so much.
It read " Dear *My Name*,
It's Valentine's Day, and I wanted to give you something for today. I like everything about you, your smile, your eyes, and your body. You're perfect. I love you."
I stayed in for a bit during lunch and gave my math teacher the note which got him creeped out too. We ended up throwing away the note, and I took the bear but met up with a friend (S) for the rest of lunch. She asked who gave me the stuffed bear and said it was nice, I ended up telling her what happened with the note and how I found it, then I gave the stuffed bear to her so she could keep it.
You all might ask, why did I give her the bear? Well I have three reasons for that, 1. She has panic attacks and snuggling up to something when she has them helps her go through them so I gave her the giant stuffed bear, 2. I don't like over the top things, and 3. I already have a lot of stuffed animals due to my brother getting me them since I was a baby.
My friend (S) still has the bear, and it has helped her a lot so I don't regret giving it away or even receiving it from my stalker (which was not known then) because it helped someone out with a problem.
Fast-forward to when I found out the stuffed bear was from my stalker, my friend (B) had messaged me to tell me about my stalker finding out about the guy I'm talking to, and before we ended our conversation he asked if he could call me, which I said yes to.
During the call he told me how he's in this groupchat for this class on instagram and how they're all "friends" in that class and that they were sharing things about their previous boyfriends or girlfriends for some reason which my friend (B) and my other friend (D) were not a part of, instead they just looked at the messages.
My stalker claimed I dated him, and then said that I didn't want anyone to know but that we did date (we never did and never will). My stalker then continued on to say in the groupchat that the giant stuffed bear that was on my seat in algebra 1 was from him, and that he got so mad at me for giving it to a friend so he broke up with me.
I wasn't even shocked that he made up a story of us dating, and when I told my bestfriend (G) we laughed for a bit then decided to contact a lawyer and see if the restraining order could be put and if the police could be involved (I say acab and defund the police but my stalker went too far now).\
Sadly, I got the news that since he had not been near me since I switched classes and I am no longer in classes with him that I cannot get a restraining order since online harassment and stalking isn't bad enough yet since they've only been friend requests and "Hello *My Name*" Which meant I couldn't even go to the police due to it being online and not "dangerous"
Sorry if this was a bit too long, I would have shortened it but it would mean more parts and I don't want to annoy anyone trying to find the parts.
Also if anyone is going through this or something similar, tell someone because at first I didn't say anything because I thought it wasn't going to get bad but it did and it is still getting worse.