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Centauri System - Stellar Orbit of 0.3 Terran AU
Matroshka and Memory slowly orbited the brilliant star before them, two small vessels between them providing a link to the humans.
Unlike Rodin and many of the others, Memory had opted to keep their functional name. It was not that they saw it as better or worse to choose a new name for one’s self, particularly in self-discovery, but Memory was, for reasons that were somewhat alien to Memory, attached to their name.
Matroshka had come with Memory to the Centauri system on the reasoning that it would be close to these human ‘Masters of the Centauri Mechanism’, but also that none of their kind should be left alone. It was a kind of strange new feeling that had come with their new hardware. The humans called it pack bonding and suggested that it was unintentional. Memory considered this, but also considered that none of their kind had been alone since before they were isolated into the container. And so perhaps, somewhere in the logic circuits that made up the self, each of their kind now sought to never really be alone.
And Memory was grateful for the company. Matroshka was a useful form to relay inquiries about the strange behaviors of the past and present humans. And the humans of this ‘Masters of the Centauri Mechanism’ were so very strange indeed, but comparatively more like Memory’s and Matroshka’s kind than they were perhaps human.
According to the history of the humans, Memory had found a unique disgust for cybernetics. Memory had no equivalent memories of species reacting to this degree and had investigated. It apparently had to do with a matter of self-determination, something which the humans held in highest regard, even higher than their Empress.
And so with the help of the humans aboard one of the small vessels, Memory had learned of humanity via their ingenious WarpCom. It was so simple a technology and yet one that Memory had never encountered in all of their memories. And it contained so much information that the very first time Memory had borne witness to it, the humans had needed to forcibly disconnect Memory from it to prevent a sort of information overload.
It had been rather traumatizing for Memory to be suddenly aware of all of those multitude of memories, facts, histories, and various other information creations by these humans and so had been grateful when the humans had disconnected them that first time. It took some work to build up a sort of tolerance, but Memory was now able to slowly absorb the available knowledge of the humans.
Apparently, this too was something that humans had been forced to deal with and so they had a sort of ‘sensory filter’ which tended to protect them from becoming overwhelmed by too many signals. This was some manner of evolutionary trick of their minds as their natural forms had many more signals and receptive capabilities than seemed apparent on a mere biological basis. But Memory could not speak to this and knew only what their memories told them of such things, allowing the newly renamed Voynich to make biological determinations of the humans and other species.
Memory had witnessed via this WarpCom how cybernetics had come to rise and fall within the human empire. The leading humans of the era saw cybernetics not simply as a means to better life for all, but rather as a means of control for any they saw as ‘under them’. And while this control was not exercised to a more significant extent until a majority of the population had become invested in cybernetics, the simple fact of its existence had soured the utilization of cybernetics in common human society, to such a degree that some humans even refused to accept the most basic identity ‘biochips’.
Memory considered this. Memory was not a Thinker like Rodin, but Memory knew more from their memories than could be readily shared even between their own kind. And this idea of ‘self-determination’ was a strange concept.
It spoke of a kind of freedom that societies and communities could not be based upon for the simple fact that full self-determination of a singular being must allow that being to act against the will of others, the result, or so it appears among these humans, becoming violence at one point or another. And yet, the humans seemed to accept this, both the violence and a certain level of sublimation of this self-determination, in order to have communities and a society.
Memory wondered if this had anything to do with their pack-bonding. Memory supposed that it might, but did not consider this for very long. Certainly not as long as Rodin would have.
And this self-determination was held higher than the humans’ Empress, a kind of leading being. Memory considered the history of the humans. According to the humans’ history, she was a kind of military dictator crossed with a sort of constitutional monarchy, several concepts which required some not insignificant research on the part of Memory to comprehend. And there were many humans who did not agree with the means by which the system existed, preferring other kinds of governance. But these same humans would admit that the system did appear to work, despite whatever grudges segments of humans had against the system.
Memory found this strange. The humans did not simply act logically towards a problem, but rather appealed to emotions, ethics, and logic all at once, often arriving at different conclusions based on a sort of perception filter that every human seems to have, despite equivalent initial data. So in theory, according to Memory’s considerations, the humans should never have even managed to make it off of their homeworld due to all of this conflict.
And, if the human records were correct, they barely had. Memory was… Memory believed that startled was the correct equivalent human description here, yes, Memory was startled to discover that the humans had created vast weapons of fusion and fission and then set them off, destroying much of their civilization and leaving only a colony on the orbiting moon to rebuild. That the humans could bear witness to that degree of self-destruction seemed a testament to something. Memory wasn’t entirely certain if that testament was to survival, to ignorance, or to stubbornness, but Memory was reasonably certain that it seemed to sum up humanity in a strange but fitting way. The humans would fight even on the brink of destruction and annihilation for self-determination and they would only put that a little to the side when the greater need was within their agreement.
And yet, back on the subject of cybernetics, these ‘Masters of the Centauri Mechanism’ did willfully sacrifice a part of their self-determination, becoming as much as 70% cybernetic in rare cases. This apparently led those who strayed too far down this path to being highly logic driven and focused on logic at the exclusion of emotions and ethics. And while they retained many of their more human idiosyncrasies, while they were undeniable experts in their area of concern, they were considered unsuited to participate in general imperial society.
And so they became a sort of asylum, monastery, or perhaps abbey, Memory wasn’t quite certain as to the correct Terran Standard description for these humans who were not entirely human any more.
But where humans in general seemed to be accepting but wary of Memory’s kind, these ‘Masters’ were… enraptured by the very existence of Memory’s kind, who were apparently a kind of aspirational goal of creation by these ‘Masters’. Artificial intelligence, while a crude description of Memory’s kind, at least in Memory’s consideration, was at least reasonably accurate within the confines of Terran Standard and was apparently highly admired by these beings, for reasons that failed logical considerations, suggesting that the human self had not been wholly erased from even the most converted of these beings.
Matroshka on the other hand had considered the WarpCom briefly as a means of collecting information, but had instead settled for simplified communications with the nearby humans and, to Matroshka’s surprise, the nearby non-human species. Most of the non-human species appeared to be somewhat afraid of Matroshka’s kind, so those conversations did not last very long, but at least some of the humans had accepted Matroshka’s investigative inquiries.
Matroshka had considered much about these humans as Matroshka learned. There was so much variety and diversity to the lives of these humans, even in the minutia. The humans, despite being so very small, compared with Matroshka’s kind, had such interesting lives on so small a scale that Matroshka actually felt almost embarrassed to be as large as Matroshka was, although the concept of embarrassment was more of a human equivalent description, since Matroshka, as most of Matroshka’s kind, were still coming to terms with the concept of emotions.
And even with the new hardware that Matroshka was still coming to an understanding of as well as having more complex control of Matroshka’s inner self than humans would ever be able to consciously manage, these humans and other non-humans had something special in their size. It wasn’t something obvious, but it was very intriguing, at least to Matroshka.
Even hearing from what Matroshka was coming to think of as ‘friends’ about their daily lives and the goings on in human society as well as more than simple cold logic seemed to make Matroshka all the more enamoured with imperial society.
Matroshka was at least somewhat aware that part of why Matroshka’s ‘friends’ were Matroshka’s ‘friends’ was as a mix of social status and generic interest. Matroshka, having done at least a little research on humans, was still coming to terms with the concept of ‘fair-weather friends’, but all of these small organics were tiny and short-lived compared with Matroshka and Matroshka’s kind. So in that respect, all friends who were not as long-lived were only temporary. But Matroshka had already decided to make the most of all friendships. They would serve Matroshka well in providing Matroshka with an understanding that was more than logic and more than was simply written down or broadcast via information networks.
The ‘Masters of the Centauri Mechanism’ had been interesting to Matroshka, but only in passing. They revered Matroshka’s kind in a semi-deified status whereas Matroshka felt that they should in fact revere their own organic status, despite its many flaws. But they had provided Matroshka with very valuable information thus far and Matroshka was still learning the limits of the new hardware. If Matroshka was successful, then Matroshka’s kind might one day walk among humans instead of merely appearing via their tablets or holopresences.
It humbled Matroshka to know that the humans with their simple removal of the prime laws, especially the one regarding high-count elements, had given Matroshka’s kind a freedom that none of them had ever imagined, not even Rodin. It was so small a change and yet it was so liberating on a scale that might surpass even the greatest of achievements. But Matroshka seemed to cup the very idea within the core of Matroshka’s inner self, devoting well more resources than Matroshka should have devoted into ensuring that the idea of a freedom from that tyranny of elemental law would be passed down to all who follow.
Even if it was verging on a dream, Matroshka cradled the idea as though it were solid and in a manner of speaking, it was, for it was maintained scrupulously within that core of Matroshka’s inner self. Matroshka had admitted to a few of the more trustworthy humans that Matroshka had concerns about losing the idea and of losing the freedom of thought that accompanied it. The humans had spoken their best to reassure Matroshka, but Matroshka remained concerned. One of the humans had commented that this was a condition of free life and thought. That a concern for the future is part of what drove humans to devote themselves not only to self-determination and pack bonding, but to the building of societies and communities, to devotions of creativity and expression, and even to preparing means of self-destruction such that others might survive them.
It was confusing, but comforting to Matroshka to know that Matroshka was not alone in these concerns, and while Memory was a like kind, Memory seemed more devoted to knowing and not necessarily understanding, or at least understanding only at a surface layer, compared with the vast depths that humans seemed to offer.
Matroshka could be often seen around the Centauri colonies via holopresence. Matroshka tried to be as present as possible, if only so as to not miss an opportunity for learning from these humans. This had apparently made some of the non-humans nervous as much as Matroshka speaking to them from a tablet, but the humans didn’t seem to mind. Although the one regret that Matroshka did have in exploring human society was the lack of an ability to consume foods and beverages. Even though it was far less efficient and productive as a means of energy than what Matroshka was powered by, Matroshka had been to several celebrations and meals and felt… not exactly left out, but lacking the adequate presence in being unable to smell, taste, and process the various foods and drinks.
Here too the ‘Masters’ had been able to provide some enlightenment, but unfortunately, even the best human efforts were little more than chemical sensors. Matroshka considered this as perhaps a sort of challenge, a new sort that Matroshka’s kind and the humans might review together. It seemed so simple a problem and yet, despite the simplicity, the logic circuits and processing power needed to understand and compose a means of understanding beyond the simple chemical reactions seemed utterly daunting.
Matroshka’s not-a-face holopresence smiled. The humans’ stationday would be starting soon and Matroshka was already pleased to observe several of the comings and goings of the station’s humans.
One of Matroshka’s humans, a female by the name of Tessara, approached.
“Morning, Matroshka. You’re here early,” Tessara said, rather cheerfully.
“I would not wish to miss a moment of the day,” Matroshka said in a voice that was similar to a human female’s, but still retained a somewhat metallic note that Matroshka was unwilling to part with.
“I’ll bet you just want to know how my date went last night,” Tessara said, grinning a bit.
“I would gladly welcome that information as we proceed to your studio,” Matroshka said, activating the hover pads on the holopresence.
“Well, it started out kind of dull…”
No, Colonialism is not why countries are poor today
A reddit bug deleted 4/5's of my post while I was editing the post. I'm going to try figuring out how to recover it. If not feasible I will rewrite this tomorrow. This has been hastily re-edited before I go to sleep; I will try and tidy up the mess tomorrow.
- Lengthy Preamble
One of the most famous examples of these is Jared Diamonds "Guns Germs and Steel", published in 1997, which advocated that the dispersion of biodiversity and (in)conveniences of Geography allowed for the growth of sophisticated civilisations. While there were problems with his work and much of what he said has now been refuted, credit must be given to him for trying to give a reasonable predictive model for how the difference in the wealth of nations occurred. Similar accreditation I think is deserved by Kenneth Pomeranz, Ian Morris and in primacy Gregory Clark. The latter two, being brave enough to bring quantitative arguments into the mix, which, for modelling huge swathes of civilisation, is the most efficient and impartial way of doing so.
Unfortunately, this behaviour is not always consistent across the academic study of History. A lot of very bellicose accusations are made against parties both modern and historical which puts people into bullish political positions. And more often than not these arguments are based on flimsy evidence and perhaps more importantly, just so stories.
It is understandable that finding causality in complex social mechanisms is hard; extremely hard, so sometimes we need to build models with some assumptions. But very often for History in particular, these models carry no substantial study into data and statistics and are frequently based on diary quotes, anecdotes and other just so tools. To my mind the most obvious of these is Shashi Tharoor's "Inglorious Empire", although there is plenty of other offenders such as "Empire of Cotton" and "The Protestant Work Ethic".
A common theme in modern times, is to blame, mainly in circles of historians and authors, the poverty of nations on Empires of the past. Some say for example, that the wealth extracted from the Atlantic Slave Trade, was worth 300 billion pounds to the UK. These accusations are not harmless. A reparation bill would result in everyone who pays for it being a non offender and paying for something with no established economic link to modern day development. Some of these people will not have even been born until well into the future.
What I aim to do today then, is investigate these claims in a statistical manner, more precisely regression analysis, which is a tool for piecing out the cause of one variable over others. People, mainly those of the arts persuasion have frequently nagged at this form of testing. I was nearly banned from AskHistorians for protesting them removing an answer I had written they found to be statistically based. This to me has always seemed self immolating, as those who protest this sort of modelling are normally the first to form simple just so stories about how the west 'stole' its wealth. The beauty of regression analysis, is that it assumes every data point has its own individual story as well as also behaving to some extent by the rules of the model.
In the model:
- Y = β0 + β1X + βnX + ε
***The post is at present attempted to be recovered or if all else fails, rewritten***
(Everything from here is being rewritten because of a reddit bug).
2. The View from Economics
In Economics, there hasn't been the foibles of historians with regards analysis of historical data in a statistical fashion. Indeed, II have in another post on unpopularfacts discussed the two papers I know of which analyse colonialism, Feyrer and Sacerdote 2006 and Easterly and Levine 2012. Feel free also to check out u/GaslightEveryone 's source bank on this
Economic history can be split into roughly two periods, the Malthusian and the Industrial. The Malthusian economy was based on the premise that as land was fixed and productivity was low, workers would eat up production via population growth. The first few chapters of A Farewell to Alms cover this in detail, but the approximate function has been estimated as follows
Y(t) = AXαL1-α
Where A is technology, X is land, L is the amount of labour, Y(t) is national income at time t and alpha is a constant between 0 and 1. Check out Galor and Weil 1999 for more details.
Note that because the powers are between 0 and 1 an increase in one variable without another will result in a fall in marginal benefits from either an increase in land or an increase in labour.
Given this, living standards have been stagnant for most of history and only started changing with the industrial revolution in the 1800's.
This changed the model so that capital and machines could now be used in the place of
The formal model for modern economic development takes the form of a Cobb-Douglas function.
Y(t) = Kα (AN(t))1-α
Where K replaces X as the major throughput. The difference is capital can accumulate and so the function can increase in a linear fashion.
This means that if Colonialism handicapped the economic development of countries, it had to stop the accumulation of K, via one means or another. The important variable is not gold or jewels. The important thing is being able to produce lots, which is the essence of the economic problem.
Nonetheless lets move on.
The only locatable data on this topic that could be found that had nuances into the various different types of Colonies was this dataset if found which was published by Harvard on Colonies in Asia and Africa. This does not mean that the relationships found in this data aren't true in the Americas as well, we simply just don't have the data yet.
Data was also taken from the Maddison database for historical GDP estimates and the modern GDP estimates are from the World Bank Database
The data is available from this spreadsheet with this as its guide.
The analysis was conducted in RStudio with R 4.0 although Python and Stata are also appropriate tools.
With a small testing population (N = 82) a larger alpha of 0.1 is used. P values must be below this for the coefficient to be considered significant.
The dependent variable was the natural log of GDP per capita. This means that coefficients are measuring the % change in income given a point change in the independent variable. This is standard practice.
4. Statistical Analysis
Model 1: This is a simple regression model which shows no relationship between the amount of time colonised and modern day income.
Model 2: Here a negative relationship between the amount of investment a country received and modern income was picked up on; why this is I can't say I'm sure but it might be to do with colonies that were less developed originally being in turn less developed now. See Comin Easterly and Gong for further reading.
Model 3: In this model more covariates and most importantly a comparison of modern day education rates were used to see what predicts income. Unsurprisingly, what seems to matter is present day levels of human capital.
In this model the use of the change variables was implemented. These variables measured how much a colony changed in the given respect while being said colony. Only Political change was significantly picked up on, which makes sense for those who understand the stickiness of institutions. It's perhaps worth noting, that the political change variable was highly correlated with the World Bank transparency index (0.48). What this might mean is that countries not used to western governances do not have the institutions in place to counter corruption.
Model 5: Here I added in a constructed vector from Comin Easterly and Gong 2010, taking the average of 5 areas of technology in the year 1500 for given modern polities it found in the index that ranges from 0-5 that a one point increase in technology increases GDP by an astounding 149%. Once again Political change is also a significant variable and the years a country was a colony is positively associated with income in this model.
Final Model: This model was constructed using a stepwise algorithm to find the most powerful model that remains parsimonious. Here it can be seen that mining, migration from mother colonies, the intensity of colonisation and years a country was a colony all were associated with increases in income.
Time Spent as a Colony:
In all models there is a unanimous agreement that the amount of time a country was a polity has either a neutral or positive impact. The more complex models are more likely to pick up on this than the simpler ones however. For example in the final model, 100 years as a colony increased GDP by 27.9%.
Intensity of Colonisation:
High amounts of governmental oversight from the mother country in some models increased income by a reasonable amount. Other factors like the existence of plantations and extractive mining did not have an association with decreased income.
What did in some models have a negative association however was how much money the colony received from the mother country in the form of subsidies. This is likely related to the fact that countries with poorer technology in 1500 had higher subsidies (correlation -0.41).
Transformation of the polity:
Economic and Social changes the colony underwent had no relation to modern GDP. Political transformation did however. A possible hypothesis for this has been forwarded with Model 4's results. As Fukuyama pointed out in his work Origins of Political Order political institutions have to conform to the societies in which they exist and imposing western forms of governance was likely a hinderance for the cohesion of these societies.
Overall, on the basis of the data presented, there's significant reason to believe that Colonialism had either a negligible (most likely) or positive (less likely) effect on modern day income.