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Djokovic Galan : These two were actually two of the more dominant performances of the second round. Novak is going to look dominant until he plays someone in the top ten, and given how comfortably he cruises through early rounds he tends to be the fresher player in those matchups, and really the only hurdles become stretches where his accuracy is a little off (a few forehand in the net, hooking a few crosscourt forehands wide). Galan beat Sandgren down from start to finish. I felt Sandgren would be in control of rallies here but he was behind the pace of the game from start to finish. His serve made the scoreline look decent but this was an hour and a half of Sandgren running back and forth and eventually hitting a backhand wide. He took it well though, and didn’t spend the whole time mumbling to himself and moping or anything like that.
It feels lazy to not put a lot of effort into discussing a Djokovic matchup, and Galan is a better test than Berankis since he moves his opponents and is coming off a good round of tennis, but this is not a matchup where Novak can really struggle. Djokovic in 3.
Garin Khachanov : Some joyous and anguished screams were delivered from Australia to Paris via Polmans, who seemed a few points away from getting this until he realized he was going to lose. It’s that glimmer of hope fading that really ends a charge, and Garin played the big points better throughout this match. Vesely really almost had the match against Khachanov. Karen’s backhand was breaking down and Jiri was in a moderately good service rhythm throughout. He led by a break in both of the last sets and Karen was really frustrated at times. This is good news for Garin, whose game is largely comprised of effort and consistency.
Where Khachanov has a big edge here is in serving. Garin just doesn’t earn cheap points, and his 1st serve percentage is more of an issue than this. There’s a big sigh of relief and change in tactics when players are returning a second serve, and sometimes it can be really effective to land a less-offensive first serve simply because players are more likely to hit a defensive return or chip. Despite the struggle with Polmans, this is an even contest. Khachanov will be the aggressor in most of the rallies, but hitting through Garin is extremely difficult, and since his defense is a big cut above Vesely, Khachanov may lose this one if he doesn’t serve well. Needing to serve well on clay is a tough path to victory, and Garin won’t be able to run away with it since he has such a conservative style, but he should get the victory. Garin in 4.
ROBERTO PABLO BAUTISTA CARREÑO BUSTA AGUT DONASCIMIENTO III : Imagine you were in line to get a name behind these dudes at the name store. Get up to the cashier like “wtf you mean you’re sold out?” After the name store these two fellas hit the “how to beat ppl 3,2,1” store and bought up all the consistency and defensive baselining. There aren’t two more measured players on the tour right now outside the top 5, and this has the potential to be very enjoyable to watch. As a bettor, there’s not much to do here. PCB seems like the better player at this event, but RBA has won their last two meetings on clay and will be fresh. Neither has really faltered thus far in the draw, and a genuinely exhausting affair is in order here. Balasz doesn’t really hit big enough to take it to RBA, and Pella was never able to hold serve in his match with PCB. The ultimate decider for me is usually form, and PCB is hitting a bit bigger and playing a more penetrating offense. If he can get off to a quick start as Gasquet/Balasz did (both were up a break in the first set) he can likely win this match. PCB in 5.
Altmaier Berretini : The all-German affair was just what I was afraid of in terms of results, with Altmaier breaking often and Struff never really finding his serving game in this. Altmaier’s deep court position isn’t something I’m generally a fan of but it gave him extra time dealing with Struff’s power and his one-handed backhand generated good height throughout which kept Struff from going down the line too much. I can’t say enough about a guy whose recent success being on the challenger tour coming into this getting through qualifying and then winning two rounds which include the #1 player from his country (Zverev not included due to being from outerspace). Berretini was broken a number of times in his match with Harris whose aggressive returning was probably the right strategy since he lost most of their neutral rallies. In truth Harris could have won this match but he made a number of wrong decisions when he had control of rallies. Nothing wrong with the decisions themselves they just happened to be where Berretini moved or happened to be to locations where Berretini converted passes. Good promise for Lloyd in the future since notching wins on clay as a server really lets you rack up points.
Altmaier is very good, and Berretini did stumble against Harris, but Altmaier plays a bit smaller of a game than Harris, and allowed Berretini into rallies lets him utilize the forehand/dropshot combo that was just devastating today for Harris. Altmaier’s deep court position is going to be an issue also, and while I expect him to win at least one set, Berretini is very consistent when working his offense against a solid defender. Berretini in 4.
Fucsovics Monteiro : Fucsovics looks like a Ken doll came to life while it happened to be wearing a tennis outfit. The dude also plays an extremely disciplined robotic game which was on display today as he had the answers for everything ARV could give him. A brief rain delay while serving to stay in the 3rd set didn’t even phase him, and it’s rare that you see a player earn errors from ARV with long rallies. A similar contest is next with Monteiro, who hasn’t dropped a set yet. Fucsovics won their only meeting on clay, and that’s very good for him since he’s made great improvements during the offseason and is both fresh, and sporting the confidence of someone who’s beaten a slightly more consistent but slightly less powerful version of Monteiro (also I heard he beat Medvedev but I only heard it because Medvedev’s griping was audible from outer space (where Zverev is from)).
I’m wary again of writing off Monteiro because both players are in great form. Fucsovics is brilliant but doesn’t stifle his opponents at all, preferring to work points in full and remain relatively conservative until he has the open court. Since Fucs won their previous meeting though, he should have the edge in this one especially since Monteiro’s backhand can lose it’s length at times. Fucsovics in 4-5.
Anderson Rublev : There are some matchups on tour you really wouldn’t expect to be a problem, and Anderson on clay for Lajovic is one of them. The previous win was somewhat telling though, and today’s match was about what I expected. Lajovic made a number of errors he never does, struggled to find winners/consistency, and genuinely looked frustrated from start to finish. Anderson was very good returning on his backhand, and he didn’t do much in the rallies aside from hit the ball low and solid down the center of the court. It’s strange for Lajovic to thrive against Khachanov’s power and spray Anderson’s every which way, but it was a good hard-fought win for Kevin, who looked like he might tire in the 4th. Serving first in the 5th set is a big advantage for a big server, and Anderson applied great pressure and earned the break after facing a break point himself. The final game went to duece and took some doing, but Anderson had an edge in rallies today that was consistent throughout, and earned some errors to close out.
Rublev is the angriest pile of shredded carrots I have ever seen. After a match he likes to go relax and listen to some heavy metal, so it’s not surprising that this teenage mutant ninja blurter was screaming obscenities and smashing racquets during his wobbly contest with ADF. Both players really crushed the ball today, and Fokina was up 5-2 before losing 11 of the next 12. Somehow he turned it around in the 4th and Rublev again utilized the “get really angry even though you’re winning” strategy. It was effective and honestly I don’t think anyone in the tournament is hitting the ball harder than he hits some of his forehand returns for winners.
Anderson’s power will be relatively meaningless against Rublev, and after only recently returning to tour it’s possible there could be fatigue in this one after a long 5 sets. The serve is a huge weapon for Anderson as Rublev is the quintessential ghost with a grudge and can grow frustrated if he doesn’t get looks at rallies, but on clay you need ways to win rallies and I fear Rublev will only lose as many sets in this as his errors lose him. He’ll know that, his coach will know that, and Anderson will know that so I expect to see Kevin play a bit more aggressive than he’d like to. Rublev’s returning will need to be more conservative than it was against ADF but I think he’ll make the right adjustments. Rublev in 4.
Carballes Baena Dimitrov : Wowsers. RCB played a heck of a match and really with him you get what you pay for. He doesn’t hit winners, he sticks to the same patterns, and tends to lose when matches go late because he’s unable to push the pace. Here though, Shap fell into the same issues he had with Simon. The “wall” on the other side of the net is psychological, as his opponents are really only scoring on Shap’s errors. Were Shap to play a pusher strategy in this match, it would be relatively difficult for RCB to have found this win. When your opponent is getting every ball, it’s important to be a bit more patient with your offense; work several shots, utilize more shape, and really it becomes more difficult for them to keep length on their returns. Playing at one speed (as Shap did here), your opponent is really just reflecting the ball back on the backhand wing (no thought necessary) and trying to hit the depth or to your backhand with their forehand (no thought necessary). You wind up playing your opponent into a perfect drill instructor, and well, today Shap didn’t execute at a good percentage.
Dimitrov was struggling at times with Martin, and exchanged breaks several times until the second set tiebreaker, where he hit a perfect backhand down the line. This shot was terrible for Martin because it scored a point, but also because it was the frustrated “time to shine” Dimitrov decision that usually leads him to an error. When he makes these shots, suddenly the speedy defender with a somewhat careless offense becomes a top tier player, and he really opened up and ran away with the third set. RCB’s job here will be to keep Dimitrov close on the scoreline. There will be fatigue but RCB’s game is pretty straightforward, and he’ll only be able to hang while Dimitrov is making errors on offense. Martin’s backhand did break down, and RCB’s won’t. The problem I see here is given Dimitrov’s proclivity for defending, it’ll be tough for RCB to score even if he steals some breaks of serve. It pains me to predict Dimitrov winning against a tough defensive test, but I think fatigue/Dimitrov’s recent decent play get him through. Dimitrov in 4.
Bedene Tsitsipas : Milojevic and Bedene played such a good match, it really is a shame that Milojevic just made minor errors in all the key moments, and while doing so Bedene also hit multiple lines late in the 4th set tiebreaker when it looked like the match would get level. Bedene was solid throughout and will need to be against Tsitsipas. Stefanos really was getting extra height on his serve today, and you could hear the ball bouncing in a very strange way without crowd noise. Cuevas really didn’t put up a great fight, and so while i don’t think Bedene can win, it certainly will be closer than today’s match. Cuevas made a number of errors due to the height on Tsitsipas’ shots, sending the ball long enough that I turned the match off for a good stretch of the first. Tsitsipas has been good for a week and a half now, and it should continue even though he will need to iron out his rally game during the match because Bedene tends to do very well if his opponent gives him control. Tsitsipas in 4.
Sonego Fritz : Whaaaaaaaat. This is not what I expected. Sonego really gave Bublik the business, and Bublik seemed mentally fatigued, fighting hard to break back in the third only to get broken again immediately. It’s nice on tour when the top 100 kinda trade results, and Sonego will be happy with the points from this week, especially since they don’t necessarily need to end. He has some very good runs on clay in his past, and the smooth style and crisp serving do make him seem like Taylor Fritz if he had style. Fritz beat Albot, whose dismissal of Thompson appears to have been more about Thompson than Albot. Fritz and Sonego are both capable servers, and this match is another very even prospect. Because Sonego was able to break Bublik, I think he’ll return well here as well, and this hopefully gives him the edge again Fritz, whose face looks like a cat. Sonego in 4.
Gombos Schwartzman : How many times must I tell the world. Gombos is the Gombosiest. After trading a pair of double break sets, Gombos’ power took over in this match, as Rodionov control of rallies was infrequent and fatigue from a long run through qualifying left him just a shade behind the pace of this match. Schwartzman enjoyed the fatigue of Lorenzo Giustino, allowing just 6 games. This is a good spot for Gombos to really see where his game is at on clay, as Diego is one of the top 10 clay talents in this event. I don’t think Gombos will go down easily, as he really does possess the kind of pace that can bother Diego. He’s unlikely to be able to bother him for a full match though, and I expect Diego to have a few service hiccoughs but come through in 3-4.
Wawrinka Gaston : Who are these masked men? Stan Wawrinka gets us every year. Terrible losses, lackluster error-strewn contests, random new relationship rumours. Then halfway through a major you look around and go “oh crap he’s gonna win.” The dude looks well hungover in most situations, but the drunken monkey style worked to great effect against Koepfer, who scrambled to earn a 4th set but basically was on the defensive the entire time. I would say that the bigger story in this match is Gaston winning two rounds at a major, and the solid play he showed en route to sending Nishioka (who hasn’t won two matches in a row in a hot minute) home is of a similar level to what Koepfer offered to Wawrinka. So can he make a contest out of this? The movement and power will be there on Gaston’s side to take advantage of a lapse from Stan, but that lapse will be required. Wawrinka isn’t exactly Nadal, so I think he may take 4 sets to come through here, but I’m optimistic about the chances of Thiem and Wawrinka.
Ruud Thiem : I owe Tommy Paul an apology. Every time he serves out wide from the ad side and hits his forehand up the line it looks like it’s going to sail long, but it just never does. Him and Ruud played such aggressive tennis in this one, it reminded me of a pro racquetball match more than a claycourt tennis event. After watching these two swing for the fences and it being pretty up in the air who would win, there was a great deal of contrast in watching Thiem calmly dismiss Sock. Thiem’s precision and body control is something I really have only seen from Federer, and I think that is the type of player he will ultimately be. Even at this point, he’s already one of the most complete players on tour, and he’s still getting better.
This is a good matchup for spectators, because Ruud’s abiity on clay will make for high-level rallies that Thiem will win. Thiem should have an answer for Ruud’s power with his movement, and Ruud’s backhand to backhand exchanges are likely to make Casper a bit impatient. I expect the same slice-heavy backhand strategy from Thiem, and a general lockdown style until an opportunity presents itself. Thiem beat Ruud in straight sets in an exhibition during the break, but this should be a bit closer, and if Thiem wins in straight sets, that’s a good sign that he’ll be able to get past Wawrinka. Thiem in 4.
Zverev Cecchinato : Here it is. The moment I’ve been waiting for. As a somewhat experienced somewhat profitable bettor, I always find myself backing someone I have no business backing around halfway through an event. “How did I get here?” I wonder, but the tennis tour will do that to you. I think Cecchinato wins this match. Zverev was extremely lucky to edge Herbert in the previous round, and while he turned things up at the USO after early struggles, he really didn’t elevate his game in a similar way here. Herbert was the one dictating play in the bh to bh rallies, which was just strange to see, and Zverev did up the RPMs as the match progressed, but seemed to struggle to find length. If Herbert were a stronger baseliner, I believe he would have found even more opportunities to get to net. In Zverev’s defense, Herbert makes the court seem very small. It tends to turn into a table tennis game where both players are really always leaning forward ready to get into some kind of cat-and-mouse game. Is Zverev the cat though? No, there are no cats in outer space.
Cecchinato was as good as I’ve ever seen him against Londero. Londero applies pressure on every shot and really has the speed to cover the court, yet Cecchinato had responses wherever the ball went. The height and spin on Cecch’s backhand were frustratingly clever, and when he leaned into it crosscourt the ball was gone. Londero worked the forehand as much as he could but that didn’t break down either, and what I was most impressed with was Cecchinato’s ability to hit his forehand down the line to keep Londero from hitting his favorite combo crosscourt forehand/forehand up the line and approach noisily. The reason I think Cecch has a good shot here is his greatest strength against Londero was hitting the ball through the court. He seemed to be almost automatic once he had a moment to set up on a shot inside the baseline, and that was exactly the ball Herbert earned time and time again but failed to really get aggressive on. Zverev’s backhand is a good bit better than Londero and his serving can sneak him past anyone, but Londero is faster and still couldn’t play effective defense. I expect Cecchinato to win the early exchanges, and since his game thrives on controlling rallies, Zverev’s default strategy to cut down errors and outlast his opponents in the pressure moments won’t be a useful strategy.
If you told me I’d be backing Cecchinato at any point in any event this year, I’d say you were crazy. Cecchinato in 4.
Coria Sinner : Good ol fashioned Benoit Paire match. Coria really put this one away in the first set, as Paire served for it and Coria managed to break. Paire just isn’t willing to compartmentalize struggle, and as a frontrunner he excels but in a deep match he fades. Sinner was in full control in his contest with Bonzi, and the future really is bright for this kid. Coria will be a tough defensive test, but Sinner has shown his ability to remain consistent when playing offense, and the slower clay gives him more time to set up. Sinner in 3-4.
Martinez Korda : Martinez was brilliant against Kukushkin, who really has Fognini to thank for a win on clay. Korda took advantage of the cold and slow surface to get a good confidence boosting win against John Isner, and it was refreshing not to watch a tiebreaker in an Isner match. This is an interesting contest because Korda thus far has been playing guys who aren’t really comfortable on the surface. Seppi prefers grass and Isner isn’t much on the red shtuff. Martinez though is at is best here, and he’ll be fresh. This is a great opportunity for two guys who’ve never been to the 3rd or 4th round of a major, and I think despite Korda’s solid serving and very bright future, Martinez will outwork him in this one. Martinez in 4.
Travaglia Nadal : Kei Nishikori is back! While he lost a tough 5th set, he really fought hard in this one. Travaglia was up a break on him in pretty much every set and Nishikori rallied back. I don’t think any of us need to see Nishikori Nadal for the 100th time, so I’m glad Travaglia won. Nadal produced one of the funnier clips of the day, with Mackie McDonald’s underhand serve attempt getting hit clean by him. Travaglia’s forehand will keep him within distance early, but Nadal is Nadal. What happeny happen and what happeny happened. We are in the third round.
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Halep Anisimova : It’s not often you get an opportunity for revenge so quickly and so identically, but Halep has one here. With colder conditions and a slower ball, Halep’s defense will be a bit more useful against Anisimova’s attack. Begu was a good test for Halep, and she weathered all the offensive storms. Anisimova doesn’t serve anywhere near as well as Begu, but she hits a much cleaner backhand and when she plays well tends to do so for longer stretches. Anisimova was really crisp against Pera, but she hasn’t been having the best year, so a repeat performance isn’t the most likely outcome here. Halep looked great in Rome and for the last week and a half no one has really looked like they were going to beat here. I’d avoid this one like the plague (though ppl seem to have stopped avoiding plagues) as a bettor because the -460 line for Halep is wildly inflated and Anisimova is looking good but a question mark against a major step up in competition. Halep in 3.
Bouchard Swiatek : Bouchard had a really tough second round, the kind of situation I usually expect her to lose in. Gavrilova is a great defender and moves the ball well. Her game is designed to beat offensive players who struggle with errors on the move. What’s encouraging about Bouchard’s run is that she has improved during it, and the level hasn’t just dropped off. If she remains at this quality, she’ll be back around the top 50 in the world by the end of next year. Swiatek, prior to an ankle injury, was looking like one of the new top players on tour. Since returning to the tour she’s been subpar, and really the threat of her rising to the top of her game again has been a very boy-who-cried-vulf situation (btw I know it’s spelled wolf but c’mon vulf sounds cooler … plus imagine a pudgy little boy running thru the village shouting “im being chased by vulfs!” … it’s better, trust me). What was I talking about? Right, vulfs. Anyway a vulf is a dog, but bigger. Basically keep picturing a dog and make it bigger and bigger until your brain says “haha that’s too big make it smaller”. That’s a vulf. They’re real big and they eat small animals and they steal vampire girlfriends and it’s just bad business. Swiatek in 2.
Trevisan Sakkari : Few people were more genuinely happy with their second round win than Marta Trevisan. After benefitting from an injury withdrawal from Giorgi, she capitalized on a late set of blunders from Gauff to get to the third round. Gauff’s conservative style seemed to be the right formula for clay against Jabeur and Konta but Trevisan doesn’t really look to play such aggressive offense, and these two generally had rallies that ended in errors rather than winners. Gauff really had this match put away a few times in the third but couldn’t hold serve. She seemed to amp up the power at the wrong times, and while she’s still very young, there’s an immediate frustration she displays that’s something her coaches will want to work on. Emotions are natural, and you won’t turn them off, but visible outbursts and body language is something that helps an opponent when they’re feeling fatigued. Trevisan was watching Gauff after she won rallies and seemed to grow in confidence as she saw her growing dejected.
Sakkari held off Rakhimova and is likely to have an edge on Trevisan. Trevisan is lefty, covers the court well, and has a very consistent forehand. She moves to net well, and serves to good effect, but most of this is negated by Sakkari’s defending. This is one where I do expect Trevisan to be somewhat “satisfied with her work” in the previous round. Sakkari in 2.
Siniakova Bertens : Siniakova has had the best two weeks of the past two years in this clay season, and she has a great opportunity here. Beating Pavs in straight sets means you played well, and remained consistent. She’s a very good test to see if your offense or defense are fake. Bertens and Errani played a marathon that saw Bertens leave the court in a wheelchair as her legs cramped on her. She also had cramping issues in her racquet hand, though Errani didn’t seem to believe any of this. The odds of Bertens recovering fully in a fresh return to tour that has seemed tentative at times even in the first rounds is somewhat low. I find that issues with cramps don’t clear up fully within an event, but Bertens will be getting an IV of fluids and that really can turn things around quickly for the ‘ol bod. Fun fact, Kiki Bertens owns the largest collection of buttons in all of Northern Europe, but if you ask her to see them, she’ll deny it.
I think Siniakova has a good chance her, but if Bertens were 100% she’d have a small edge. Pavs and Bertens just present a very similar challenge and I think Siniakova has played the right combination of matches coming into this. Since Bertens always goes to three sets, I think it’ll take that many for fatigue to become an issue. Siniakova in 3.
Svitolina Alexandrova : I only caught half of the Svitolina Zarazua match because I became concerned that I might be developing mutant powers. All’s clear though, as my dr indicated Zarazua was just wearing a see-through shirt. Svitolina hasn’t lost in a week and a half, and while her game lapsed big time in the second set, it was more about Zarazua’s level going up at the same time. Alexandrova can play the type of offense you need to to beat Svitolina, but for a whole match it is somewhat unlikely. Svitolina is play good clay, and her and Monfils cringily trying to become tennis personalities when they are already tennis personalities is not an exciting cycle to watch, so I hope she keeps winning on court. Svitolina in 2.
Garcia Mertens : Garcia, who does not seem to make facial expressions, has been sleepwalking since 2017. Since it is dangerous to wake someone in this state, they continue to allow her to play tennis, and damn if she hasn’t gotten good at it. Beating Kontaveit and Sasnovich aren’t her most high-profile wins, but both matches are certainly up there for the best stretch of play she’s had in over a year. As usual in tennis tournaments, your reward for good play is a match against someone tougher. Mertens is probably the closest to Azarenka in terms of precision/error free play, and really only in the 2nd set of matches against power players does she start to lose range on her forehand a bit. It happened against Andreescu when she was on tour, and it may happen here, since Garcia swings for the fences. A third set on clay is somewhat of a tossup between these two, and while I give the edge to Mertens, how many rounds does Garcia have to play great in before we believe it? I didn’t love the late second set win against Kanepi that much. Mertens tentatively in 3.
Schmiedlova Podoroska : Thank you ladies for saving us from a noiiiiiiiisy ass affair. I have loved Azarenka’s play the last few weeks and she is a gem of a human, but her and Putintseva is a cacophony. If you don’t know what that is, it is the latin phrase for a gaggle of parrots fighting over control of the radio in a stolen car they’re driving to Mulan, Italy and I know that’s not how it’s spelled but they’re parrots ok they’re doing their best also Disney pays me 6 bucks for each time I say Mulan in my writeup. Schmiedlova is playing great out of nowhere, but books saw this coming. She was slated as a favorite against Venus Williams after not many wins on tour and she didn’t just beat Azarenka, she dominated her.
Podoroska dished out a similar display against Putintseva. There were some very good racquet smashes in this one and the “lose the first win the second” method for Yulia has resulted in players really folding in the 3rd set. Somehow, Podoroska didn’t, and it’s been her trademark throughout this event to continue to exert pressure and play offense regardless of the situation. It remains to be seen if her game translates to hardcourt, but she’ll definitely have a chance against Schmiedlova here. Hard to see this going to anyone in quick fashion. Podoroska in 3.
Krejcikova Pironkova : Well well well. Pironkova appears to have benefitted from an ankle injury to Serena Williams and the tennis forum seems to have suffered from the undending debate over whether that’s real or not. It did not look like she was going to win this event, so it was a prudent move to withdraw to focus on her health. Krejcikova defeated her countrywoman in 3 good quality sets, and is a similar test for Pironkova here. Pironkova doesn’t really excel on clay, but Krejcikova losing a set to Strycova (who plays a less sharp brand of offense than Pironkova) isn’t the best of signs. Her best results are on clay, so this should be tight, and if I’m hesitant to make bold predictions here it’s because these are really matchups that are new and very tight. What I can tell you though, via my careful research, is that Tsvetana runs a chain of pizzerias in her home country called Pironkova’s Pizza and if you order the Pironkova from the menu she hides in the box and pops out and hits you with an inside out backhand when you open it. She also may or may not juggle motorcycles. You decide. Pironkova in 3.
Sabalenka Jabeur : Great win for Sabalenka, and although she was tested often in the 1st set tiebreaker she didn’t miss anywhere near as much as she classically does in this one. That’ll have her a a solid favorite against Jabeur, who needed every moment of her match against Hibino to come through. The Japenese star really had her chances, as the windy conditions left Jabeur sending a number of dropshots well short of the net. Her power and grace were a consistent factor though, and it almost looked like impatience was the real enemy she was facing. Sabalenka serves better, and is in better form at the moment. I think Jabeur sees the exit here as she just wasn’t terribly sharp against Hibino, and Aryna was probably the best we’ve seen her today. Sabalenka in 2.
Collins Muguruza : TAuson noooooooo. Collins has really played herself into form in this event, and has a good chance against Muguruza, simply because everyone always has a good chance against Muguruza. Pliskova led early but couldn’t find her serving today, and her defense is just not up to tour level. She is the Feliciano Lopez of the WTA in many ways. She is large, beautiful, lefty, and does not get past the 3rd round.
Muguruza is a clear favorite here, but Collins has the kind of ballstriking that can make her a threat against any opponent. Mugu on clay playing well is tough to pick against, but I expect one of two things here. One, Muguruza breaks often and heads into the 4th looking like the favorite to meet Halep in the finals (I don’t expect this). Two, Collins bullies her way into rallies with Muguruza and carries momentum for multiple stretches, earning an implosion and a chance at a final set (I expect this). Another match where two players are both in great form with not much to clearly point to a winner, but as they say in France, expecto patronum. Collins in 3.
Ferro Tig : What a tenacious player Ferro is. Rybakina really fought hard in this and Ferro made the errors that cost you a match. The big moments where you go for the big shots and miss. And then the next point came and she went for a bigger shot and made it. It is refreshing to see someone so offensive yet so casual on the court, casual in the sense that she doesn’t seem like missing is an issue, more of a temporary setback. Tig was the better player today, and though many games went to duece she was the one whose numba turned green at the end of the day. I really expect Ferro to continue her excellent play here, and while Tig’s shot tolerance is solid and her play is at an all-time high after a title win in Constantinople, Ferro’s free swinging should get her a lot of opportunities. Ferro in 2.
Bara Kenin : Kinda anticlimactic end to the Bara match, with Van Uytvanck getting her pulse checked after a lopsided first set and withdrawing a while later. I hope she’s ok, but it didn’t really affect the outcome here as Bara was playing some excellent tennis and AVU is really more of an indoograss court player. Kenin lost the first as I expected since she’s been less than stellar on clay, but then found a form that looked reminiscent of her title run at the AO. She was very aggressive and made her shots which was the big difference late. Bara is a bit better than Bogdan but a similar test, and if Kenin continues to thrive then she’ll win this. It’s another good match to see where a title threat’s game really is. Bara being a qualifier has to come in a bit more fatigued, but her match with AVU wasn’t much work at all. Bara likely beats Bogdan, so this may be another 3 setter. If it’s gross that I’m predicting so many tight matches, it’s also wonderful that there are so many players ballin right now on the tour. Bara in 3.
Kvitova Fernandez : Kvitova quietly (except when she swings) is moving through this draw. Clay’s not her best, but in the big events she seems to become a very tough out. Fernandez gave the same trouble to Hercog as her previous opponent, and it’s pretty clear that her consistency when defending the baseline is a problem that not everyone has the power to hit through. I guess, Kvitova does though. It’ll come down to whether Kvitova’s serving and power break down Fernandez’ defense. I don’t really think it will, but Fernandez hasn’t shown the ability to take apart her opponents offense until late in the match, so I expect this to be Kvitova in 2, or Fernandez in 3,
Burel Zhang : Another classic Burel Zhang 3rd round. Tennis is so predictable. I got a chance to catch the whole match today, and Burel really is a nice player. Juvan as well really was solid, but so often losing a tiebreaker at the end of a high-quality set spells disaster and a drop in level in the next one. Since both are young players, this was compounded a bit and Burel’s excitement spurred her on. Seeing so many prospects doing well is great for the tour, and Burel doing this at her home slam is really cool. Alize Cornet, originally from Whoville, now represents France. She had a long day, as Zhang was constantly taking the lead and even when broken back kept her solid ball movement up. Cornet is used to outlasting her opponents in these rallies, but today she was on the losing end.
Burel has a chance here, as Zhang is not the sort to just hit you off the court. Very hard to say with the limited info on Burel if she can get through here, as there may have been an added comfort level playing as a big underdog against another young player. Zhang in 2 most likely, but it’s hard to count Burel out as she’s come through twice as a considerable underdog.
Martic Siegemund : Why win in two when you can win in threeeeeee? *taps head* Martic barely squeaked by her match, and I am probably going to predict her losing as soon as she plays a solid baseliner. The problem is, this section of the draw has really opened up for her. Siegemund has stolen two matches in a row after losing a big stretch of games early on, and while she moves the ball extremely well, she doesn’t hit with the type of power that will remove Martic. I like Fernandez, Kvitova, Kenin, Bara, Ferro, Collins, Muguruza, Sabalenka, and really most of the draw against Martic, but not Siegemund. Martic’s offense differs greatly from Goerges and Mladenovic in that she keeps a steady game the entire match, and keeps her unforced errors low. Siegemund will have to work very hard to earn points and won’t be able to afford the kind of back and forth stretches that she’s had thus far. Martic in 2.
Badosa Ostapenko : Major upset today for anyone who actually thinks Tennis Channel announcers talk honestly about American players. Badosa played well and Sloane fought pretty hard also which was nice to see. Ostapenko took advantage of a lackluster Pliskova and struck a ton of winners en route to a third round. With Cecchinato and Ostapenko both ballin I’m happy I’ve entered this time loop and am looking forward to the section where Andreescu returns and Barty wins everything else. Also, we get skinny Jack Sock!
Gibert plays a really smart clay game and it’s a problem for Ostapenko on a regular day, but Ostapenko has hinted at brilliance the past few weeks and it will be a matter of winners vs unforced errors to see who advances. If more winners, Ostapenko in 2. If more unforced errors, probably Gibert in 3.
PS Pablo Andujar lives in a magical cave with mystical jaguars, Goffin is a magical elf and only loses to not arouse suspicion, and Rublev is an angry broccoli sent from the planet blllyyyyatttttt
One year studying Japanese
BackgroundMy native language is Italian. I use English (proficient) and Russian (near native) daily, I used to speak German decently (I feel I am slowly forgetting it after leaving Germany). I am my early 30s and since I work remotely I am lucky to have quite a bit of spare time in my hands. Spare time seems to never be enough when learning Japanese.
Current statusAlthough I am not studying for JLPT, I have tried some simulations/mock tests and I seem to be somewhere between N1 and N2. More in details
- I can have simple conversations on everyday topics. I can have more complex conversations but ony if the other person has enough patience and is really willing to cooperate
- I can read manga/easy light novels without furigana but referring quite often to a dictionary. I try to use a J-J dictionary but often enough I use a J-E dictionary for ease.
- I know somewhere around 2000 kanji (recognize meaning + at least the most common onyomi). I don't know how many words I know.
- I can write short texts/messages relatively well, but slowly. I cannot handwrite.
- I can watch anime/movies, especially with jsubs to varying degree of comprehension, but usually I understand at least the gist of the dialogs. Without subs it really depends on how easy the content is.
MotivationI started learning Japanese after spending a week in Osaka for work. Although I didn't have much time to visit the city, I really loved the atmosphere, the people and of course the food. Since I plan going back there for a long holiday (should have happened this year, but yeah, 2020 and all) I wanted to lower the language barrier. I am always been into anime, but I used to watch them dubbed. If you think that's a lame motivation, well it is.
How I got thereFirst of all, I don't think my method is the best, I just really spend a lot of time doing stuff in Japanese, but not much time at all studying.
I started by buying the Rocket Japanese course. After a couple of months it became clear that at the very best I am training pronunciation and learning a few set phrases.
I then started Genki but although I liked initially it became confusing after a bit, lots of rule and not much structure.
After that I started with Tae Kim and finally things started to make sense. I started reading Yotsuba but it was like 30 minutes to read 1 page and gave headache.
After a bit I started SRS (Anki with a premade 6k Core deck) and I am doing it to this date.
Then I stumbled upon Cure Dolly's channel and that's where I honestly began understanding Japanese. I know many are critical of her approach but for the way I like to learn things (dissecting stuff to the smallest possible unit of complexity) it was perfect. I don't like her new videos though, it looks like she went into an endless loop of repeating stuff with a few new useful videos.
After Cure Dolly I dropped anything which can be referred to as "studying", except for Anki. I started seriously reading mangas and watching anime with jp subs (or without any sub). There are a few YouTube channels publishing easy to understand short stories almost daily (will list below). I also started conversation pratice tutoring on iTalki 1 or 2 times a week (doing them to this day).
To this day my daily routine consists of
- Doing Anki (20/30 minutes)
- Reading a chapter of a manga (10/20 mins)
- Watching videos/anime in JP (10/60 mins)
- Once/twice per week, have a conversation session on iTalki (60 mins each)
- Read a light novel (30/180mins, depending on how much free time I have)
- Once/twice per week, write a short text which will then be corrected by the iTalki tutor (30 minutes each)
Online manga/novel store: https://bookwalker.jp/top/
Anki guide: https://djtguide.neocities.org/anki.html
Free (legal) novels: https://syosetu.com/
Random tipsHere are some random tips/thoughts. These are subjective so yeah take them with a grain of salt
- If your native language is not English, you might find a better translation for words (one which aligns better to the original Japanese meaning) in your native language (applies at least to Russian and Italian)
- As an addendum to the above, don't take the translation as an absolute. Language is full of metaphores and Japanese seems to use different ones from Western languages for almost everything. Understanding these metaphores is easier and faster than remembering a list of meanings which have nothing to do with each other and that don't always apply.
- A lot of stuff called "grammar" or "grammar points" when studying Japanese is not really grammar and the way it is explained often combines particles, verb endings etc with some other words as if it were a single unit (for example "なければならない". Break these down to the smallest unit instead of memorizing them as a whole.
- Learn the structure of the language, accept it as being very different from your own and don't even try to find direct mappings. If you need to say/write something in Japanese, think it directly in Japanese or the translation will suck.
- -す/せる、-ある、-える (often combined with a consonant) give hints about the actors of the verb (what acts upon what). I like to see these as if it were the 連用形 or 未然形、of the base verb (the i/a-stem) + respectively, する、ある、得る/られる. Example: 漏る、漏れる、漏らす. This might not be correct but it works for me in a lot of cases. It is a topic I want to study more
- Spend time to find the kind of patterns like the point above and try to use it for word analysis/formation (for example -かった is -く+あった, だ is である、だった is であった) to be able to guess the meaning of stuff you haven't seen yet or make easier remembering stuff.
- Don't care about 丁寧語 until you know have a decent of understanding of the language structure. It is very easy to learn it but it hinders learning the basics.
- Have fun