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2021 NFL Mock Draft with explanations for each pick (3 rounds) + Prospect rankings.

Hey everyone. Warning this is a massive post, but im sure that's normal here!
Decided to do an early mock and prospect analysis. I operate a 49ers blog and Slack server, and had done this with them, but I decided to share it here. fortheniners.com is my website if you want to check it out for more stuff, but it's mostly 49ers oriented. Give me some feedback, would love to hear it from you guys.
I created a custom order based on the rest of the season and i simulated the rest. Some picks might be switched in the 2nd round and 3rd due to the reordering of picks, but mostly it should be OK. I felt this order fit how I think the NFL will shake out by the end of season. I can't get the picks to number for some reason correctly.

Positional Rankings

QB:
  1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
  2. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
  3. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
  4. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
  5. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
  6. Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
  7. D’Eriq King, QB, Miami
  8. Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
  9. Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
  10. Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State
RB:
  1. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
  2. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
  3. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State
  4. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
  5. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis
TE:
  1. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
  2. Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn State
  3. Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
  4. Hunter Long, TE, Iowa State
  5. Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma
WR:
  1. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
  2. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
  3. Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
  4. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
  5. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
OT:
  1. Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
  2. Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
  3. Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
  4. Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
  5. Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
OG/OC:
  1. Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
  2. Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma
  3. Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee
  4. Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
  5. Josh Myers, OG, Ohio State
DT:
  1. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State
  2. Jay Tufele, DT, USC
  3. Jaylen Twyman, DT, Pittsburgh
  4. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
  5. Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU
DE:
  1. Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
  2. Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
  3. Quincy Roche, DE, Miami
  4. Carlos Basham Jr, DE, Wake Forest
  5. Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
LB:
  1. Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
  2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
  3. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
  4. Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan
  5. Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina
CB:
  1. Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama
  2. Caleb Farley, CB, Virgina
  3. Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
  4. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
  5. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
S:
  1. Jevon Holland, FS, Oregon
  2. Paris Ford, SS, Pittsburgh
  3. Hamsah Nasirlideen, SS, Florida State
  4. Caden Sterns, FS, Texas
  5. Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

3 ROUND MOCK

1st Round

NYJ - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
  • Maybe the best QB prospect… ever. Lawrence brings what the Jets have lacked for a very long time. “It”. Lawrence is almost a flawless QB prospect, complete with elite physical tools, mental tools, experience in big games, and the football IQ to be one of the best QBs ever.
JAX - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
  • Make no mistake. Justin Fields is not a consolation prize. The Ohio State product is one of the best QB prospects in recent memory as well, with exceptional arm talent, elite ability to make throws on the run, athleticism, leadership, and good decision making. Gifted with a strong arm and a very good deep ball, he will do well on a team that can build around him. He’s also part of the new generation of mobile QBs - Fields is expected to run in the 4.4s.
WAS - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
  • Wilson is an interesting prospect. The eye-test shows a mega-talented QB with a knack for big plays, but reading in between the lines, his prospects become murky. Playing against a low level of competition, Wilson has never been truly under pressure from a pass rush during a game. Regardless, Wilson might be the most naturally gifted playmaker in this class - his ability to make throws on the run and extend plays is reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and more, and his arm talent fits that category. One year wonder, sure, but Wilson can be a superstar.
NYG - Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
  • Passing on the best tackle prospect in recent memory is probably a bad idea. Unfortunately, Dave Gettleman has a penchant for that. Rousseau is a very raw albeit extremely talented pass rusher from Miami. Despite being underdeveloped as a pass rusher, his physical gifts alone made him a top pass rusher last season, trailing only Chase Young as the best pass rusher in college. The Giants add another big man to a talented DL, along with Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence. Rousseau is oozing with potential, and with his length, burst, and strength, can become a force that will terrorize the NFC East. Rousseau is going to test very well at the combine as well.
CIN - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
  • Joe Burrow is screaming for joy. Sewell is the best OT prospect, arguably since Joe Thomas, or Trent Williams - he has everything. This is almost a cant-miss pick for Cincinatti, and it gives them two young, bookend tackles in Sewell and 2019 1st round pick Jonah Williams to protect the Heisman award winning QB.
DAL - Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama
  • Dallas is not as bad as this pick slot indicates, but regardless, they pick due to their injury concerns. Drafting on the defense has to be the priority here, and why not reunite Surtain Jr with his former Alabama teammate, and fellow DB in Trevon Diggs? It fills a need and is arguably the BPA at this spot.
LAC - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
  • While they missed out on Sewell, longtime blindside protector for Justin Herbert, Leatherwood is a great prospect in his own right. A well rounded OL with experience in a tough conference like the SEC, Leatherwood is a stalwart that can start at guard or tackle, giving the Chargers a piece they can put anywhere on the line to protect Herbert, and he is NFL-ready on Day 1.
DET - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
  • Passing on Micah Parsons! How? Last time they picked a LB in the first round, it was Jarrad Davis, and they were burned, badly. Instead, they opt for the explosive WR out of Alabama, marking 3 straight picks from Tuscaloosa. Waddle is a game-breaker, stirring up comparisons to Tyreek Hill - and rightfully so. His speed is incredible, and his hands and route running are right up there as well, and he brings rare instincts and elusiveness. Waddle was the best WR in college before getting injured this season. Waddle adds the last piece to the Detroit offense, giving them a great group around Matthew Stafford who is entering the twilight of his career - with Waddle, Golladay, Jones Jr, Swift, and Hockenson, the Lions have the makings of a very good offense.
MIA - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
  • Brian Flores would sprint to the podium to pick up Parsons if this was the scenario. The former LB coach grabs one of the most gifted LB prospects in a long time, and he fits the Dolphins at one of their biggest positions of need, with Raekwon McMillan gone. Parsons forms a fearsome LB duo next to Jerome Baker, and brings rare instincts, speed, and physicality to Miami.
DEN - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
  • Denver was hoping that Parsons would fall one more pick, but alas, they have to settle. Cosmi is one of the most physically talented OTs in the draft, and although he is raw, he’s got plenty of ability and potential. John Elway grabs his hopeful franchise LT to protect Drew Lock.
ATL - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
  • One of the fastest risers in the draft, Paye is physically dominant as an EDGE rusher and has the production to back it up. Atlanta could have taken a QB here, but considering that they have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both in their primes at the moment, they decide to stick with Matt Ryan - for the short term, instead of spending a massive asset on a rookie QB and waiting on him. Paye can become one of the best DL in the league, and replaces Takkarist McKinley.
MIN - Wyatt Davis, IOL, Ohio State
  • Another team that could have taken a QB - Minnesota passes on the hometown kid, Lance, in favor for an interior lineman. While QB would be ideal here, Kirk Cousins’ contract is a behemoth, and it does not afford the Vikings a real opportunity to get off that contract - Minnesota would be better off shoring up the rest of their team, and looking for a new QB in the future, while sticking with Cousins short-term.
SF - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
  • The Garoppolo era is over - and the new era of Trey Lance begins in San Francisco. Lance is the only QB of the “big four” who exclusively works in a pro-style offense, and under center. His big arm, mobility, and IQ on the football field will be a welcome sight for 49ers fans who have seen none of those under the last couple years with Garoppolo at the helm. Lance, although in a weak conference, has showcased both elite ability as a pocket passer and a runner, with exceptional touch on deep balls. He can stand in the pocket, deliver while taking a hit, and Kyle Shanahan will like all of that. Great decision maker, and he limits turnovers.
NE - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
  • Bill Belichick misses out on the last remaining big QB. He instead opts for the premier offensive weapon in the class, Kyle Pitts. Pitts is in the running for the Heisman. As a TE. Yeah. Belichick adds Pitts to a weakened Patriots offense in desperate need for a big weapon like Pitts, and he steps into the 6 foot 6 inch, 265 pound gap left by Rob Gronkowski in Foxborough.
CAR - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
  • With Teddy playing very well, Carolina likely opts to reinforce their defense, after doing so already last season. Their offense is all but set, with stars like McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel already in the mix - but the biggest problem is the defense. While they could go LB to replace Kuechly, why not provide one more big time player in the secondary. With Donte Jackson, Caleb Farley, Jeremy Chinn, and more, Carolina has the makings of a great defense.
LV - Marvin Wilson, IDL, Florida State
  • They will go DL and the BPA in that case is FSU’s Marvin Wilson. The big man has been one of the best interior DL in college for a very long time and will continue to do so in Vegas, and provides a physical presence next to Maurice Hurst, Clelin Ferrell, and Maxx Crosby. This is a reach, but the Raiders bet that Wilson can recapture his previous level of play in an NFL program.
CLE - Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
  • Moses, physically, is one of the most talented LB prospects in the draft. A thumper at LB, Moses has seen everything coming from the long list of star Alabama LBs in recent years - but there are question marks. Before his ACL injury, Moses was supposed to go top 10, but after, his play level, and instincts have declined and he looks a step slow. Still, Cleveland opts to grab Moses and place him next to Mack Wilson, giving the Cleveland defense the leader and MIKE LB they need and that they had lost in Joe Schobert.
JAX - Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn State
  • Friermuth has drawn Gronk comparisons as a big, bulky target over the middle with blocking capability and red-zone dominance. While he may never reach that level, this is a no-brainer at 18 - Jacksonville gets Justin Fields his safety blanket for the next 5 years or more, and fills one of their biggest needs on the offensive end of the ball.
PHI - JaMarr Chase, WR, LSU
  • Philly fans are likely screaming in joy. Arguably the best WR in the draft drops all the way to 19, and right into the lap of Doug Peterson. Carson Wentz finally gets his #1 WR, and it’s a good one. Next to Jalen Reagor, Chase forms a lethal duo and both complement each other perfectly. He has everything a WR needs, and although he is not exceptionally fast, his hands, route running, ball skills, and physicality more than make up for it. He drops partly due to his speed not being amazing and recency bias favoring Jaylen Waddle.
TEN - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
  • Tufele is a gifted defensive tackle - with good athleticism, technique, and all-around ability, and young as well, he is nowhere near his ceiling both as a pass rusher and run defender. He can be a 3 down player and can start day one, and for a contender like Tennessee, that makes perfect sense. They shore up the DL again, with three pieces set in stone - Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons, and now, Tufele.
MIA - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
  • With Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, and Jakeem Grant, the Dolphins have a good WR corps. But they need that final piece, the #1 - and Smith is exactly that. Tua gets his favorite target back, as Smith follows in the footsteps of the Alabama route-runners before him in Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, and Amari Cooper. He is thin, but strong at the same time, showcasing good speed, elite route running, elusiveness, and hands, giving Tua the target he needs.
CHI - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
  • The SAVIOR! The Trubisky saga is over, and Nick Foles time is short lived in Chicago as well. Chicago opts for Mac Jones, the signal caller from Alabama. Jones is an experienced QB - but the sample size of him playing well is small. Armed with an elite deep ball, a good arm, and functional mobility, Jones works in a pro-style system and is one of the few QBs that could start Day 1 in the NFL. With great decision making and ability to read the field, while playing tough defenses in the SEC - Jones opens up the entire playbook for Chicago because he can throw to any part of the field. They could take Kyle Trask, but instead opt for the higher ceiling in Mac Jones.
NO - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
  • A WR would also be a fit here next to Michael Thomas, but with Mac Jones gone, the Saints opt to add another LB next to the aging DeMario Davis and questionable Kwon Alexander. J.O.K. is a talented LB who can lineup at anywhere from MIKE, to S, to OLB, and do it at a high level. Great in coverage, and can play against TEs and occasionally WRs in the slot. He’s a defensive weapon for Sean Payton.
BUF - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
  • Tre White gets a partner in crime. Wade falls all the way to 24, where Sean McDermott picks up the best fit at corner for his scheme. Wade is exceptional both in press and in zone, and is an explosive and fast athlete with some swagger when tackling. He can work both outside or in the slot, and while he has some issues against taller and bigger WRs, it’s nothing that cannot be ironed out. The Bills form an elite, top 3 defense with Wade in the fold.
IND - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
  • A QB could make sense here, but Trask once again falls as Indianpolis decides to stick with one of the three in Rivers, Brissett, or the Uber-talented rookie in Jacob Eason. Instead, they grab the best safety in the class in Jevon Holland. Holland is a do-it-all safety with great coverage ability, and a lot of range - and he gives the Colts a player they can plug and play at either FS or SS. Malik Hooker simply has not worked out for the Colts due to health reasons, so the Colts grab a long term starter at S.
ARI - Creed Humphrey, IOL, Oklahoma
  • Kyler Murray gets his old friend from Oklahoma. Humphrey is a plug-and-play center or guard prospect in the NFL and gives Murray some much needed familiarity - and at a big position of need. Arizona’s biggest focus should be protecting Murray, and Humphrey is a strong, technical stalwart in the interior, which is key against the NFC West’s talent like Aaron Donald, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, and more.
GB - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
  • Aaron Rodgers will riot if this pick is not another weapon. Despite the defensive short comings for the Packers, they have to take WR here - it’s holding back their offense. They opt for Rondale Moore, the explosive WR from Purdue. Moore is a game-changer with the ball in his hands, a YAC machine who will destroy you in the open field. And that is a perfect compliment to Davante Adams, as Moore can lineup anywhere, from RB, to the SLOT, to outside WR. Aaron Rodgers has clearly missed Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb - but Moore brings what Cobb also brought to the table.
BAL - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
  • The speed demon in Marquise Brown is already there - but the Ravens need a true #1. Bateman brings a physical, big presence at WR, something Lamar has not had since college, and something he really needs. Bateman’s sure hands, body control, contested catch ability, and explosiveness is exactly what the Ravens need - as the final piece in a juggernaut of an offense being created. With Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, Marquise Brown, Jackson, and now Bateman in the fold, Jackson’s full ability as a passer can be unleashed and the Ravens offense with that.
TB - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
  • When in doubt, take the Bama player. In all seriousness, there are plenty of options the Buccaneers can go with here - but clearly, reinforcing the DL is the most popular way of doing so. Barmore next to Vita Vea gives the Buccaneers a great duo, with Barmore a perfect candidate to play the 3-tech. He’s raw but plenty of growing room.
PIT - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
  • Trask finally comes off the board, and to arguably the perfect team. Trask is not ready to start in the NFL day one - but he can be that guy in the future. Although he does not possess an amazing arm, he has all the intangibles, accuracy, and decision making to become the QBOTF in Pittsburgh. Trask’s biggest issue is his footwork - if he can fix that, everything else will fall into place. He possesses the physical attributes to be a star, tall, built strong, and he is fearless in the pocket. The throwing motion is good, but the overall mechanics in combination with the footwork need improvement. Fortunately, he will have time to do so under Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.
KC - Carlos Basham, DE, Wake Forest
  • Basically any pick is a luxury pick for Kansas City, but they opt for Basham here. Basham is a sure-thing, he won’t be a superstar, but he will be a very good defensive end. He is strong, big, and possesses both good burst and good technique - and forms a great duo across from Frank Clark.
NYJ - Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
  • While they could take Etienne here, instead of the next pick right after, they take Carman first - for the 5th round option. RBs are usually easy to keep, but that 5th year option if Carman pans out will be massive. The Jets grab Trevor Lawrence two familiar faces back to back, in order to appease their new franchise QB, who may not have been enthusiastic to be drafted by NY.

2nd round:

NYJ - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
  • Jets grab another familiar face, this time in the best RB in the draft. Lawrence feeling at home. Etienne has incredible speed, acceleration, and is a complete RB, being able to play on 3rd down. The Jets get a dynamic weapon, a stark contrast to the slow and steady Le’Veon Bell.
JAX - Trey Smith, OT/OG, Tennessee
  • If Justin Fields is going to succeed, the Jaguars need to step it up everywhere. They’ve addressed TE, now they address the OL, with Smith. Rock-solid lineman with versatility, Smith is one of the best pass protectors in the draft.
WAS - Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest
  • First step in Washington with new management in the fold is building a new culture. Support players - and Surratt is squeaky clean off the field with academic awards and more. But really, this is about football - Surratt is a very good possession WR and fits next to McLaurin well, giving Zach Wilson a big target with soft hands and good speed.
NYG - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
  • Passing on Sewell hurts - but Mayfield makes up for it. A very high potential player at OT, Mayfield can play at RT or LT, depending on where the Giants shift the struggling Andrew Thomas. Saquon Barkley breathes a sigh of relief.
CIN - Terence Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
  • Familiar target? Check. AJ Green is likely out of Cincinnati after this season, and Marshall can perfectly fit in as a height-weight-speed freak with production. Marshall can be the #1 WR in Cincy.
DAL - Caden Sterns, S, Texas
  • Strengthening this defense is key - and the next step is at safety. Sterns fits the bill as a playmaking coverage safety who can play in man or zone, helping this Cowboys pass defense take the next step.
LAC - Walker Little, OT, Stanford
  • Two tackles in a row? With a QB like Herbert, you need it. With Trai Turner, Leatherwood, Little, and Lamp on the OL, Herbert will have good protection and for a long time with two new bookend tackles. Little is a great fit at RT, with Leatherwood slotting on the left. Good technique, great size, and great length.
DET - Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan
  • Taking the Ann Arbor product, McGrone has sky-high potential as a three down LB with sideline to sideline speed. Detroit gets the chosen one at their biggest need.
MIA - Quincy Roche, DE, Miami
  • Besides the Miami connection, this is a no-brainer. Roche drops to the 2nd, where Brian Flores picks him up to reinforce a pass rush in need of a speedy, bendy edge rusher like Roche. Big time pick up, as Miami is nailing the draft.
DEN - Jaylen Twyman, DT, Pittsburgh
  • Von Miller and Jurrell Casey should return next season, giving the Broncos a fearsome trio combined with Bradley Chubb. Twyman is the final piece and gives them a longterm solution. An explosive, undersized DL, Twyman is already an elite pass rusher on the interior with room to grow.
ATL - Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU
  • Narrowly missing on Twyman, they settle for Shelvin, the behemoth DT from LSU - a great fit next to Grady Jarrett, Dante Fowler, and now Kwity Paye. Shelvin can swallow up double teams.
JAX - Paris Ford, S, Pittsburgh
  • Fields is in the fold, but that does not mean Jacksonville ignores the defense. They get a good safety in Paris Ford, a guy who is always around the ball. With Josh Allen, Chaisson, Myles Jack, CJ Henderson, and now Ford, they have high potential guys on every level of the ball.
SF - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
  • Dee Ford is likely gone… so the 49ers need a speed rusher, an athletic one for DL coach Kris Kocurek to mold. While very raw, Oweh is a physical freak with speed, a quick first step, strength, and bend. He is not a finished product, and will be limited to pass rush duties in his first years, but once he develops, watch out.
NE - Joseph Ossai, EDGE/LB, Texas
  • Bill Belichick runs to the podium for this pick. Home run for NE, as they grab the perfect player they need at LB and the DL - someone who can fill the position that Jamie Collins left years ago. Ossai is very raw but Bill Belichick will savor getting a LB that he can mold in whatever way he wants for his defense. This is a perfect fit.
CAR - Jabril Cox, LB, LSU
  • A smart, fast and instinctive LB, Cox will not replace Luke Kuechly, but he can help. Next to Shaq Thompson, the Panthers have filled a lot of their holes already - and it’s still the 2nd round.
LV - Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse
  • Cisco gives the Raiders a nice, young, and talented safety duo in their secondary with Abram as well. Raiders continue to strengthen the defense. Cisco is coming off a torn ACL but is talented and was a 1st round prospect, arguably, until his injury.
CLE - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
  • Odell Beckham Jr is likely done - and either way, Baker Mayfield needs a new target, preferable one that can play in the slot or outside. St. Brown has great hands, great route running, and good speed. Cleveland has a big need at EDGE, but they opt to get their young QB one more target in hopes of a breakout season.
LAR - Josh Myers, OG, Ohio State
  • They could take a LB here, but Myers dropping this low is a no-brainer. The Rams add another athletic and polished OL. Myers is a good fit for the zone scheme that Sean McVay runs, and fill one of their most pressing needs. Jared Goff is not Jared Goff under pressure - this is the way to keep this offense chugging… investing in the OL, especially in the brutal NFC West.
PHI - Hamsah Nasirlideen, LB/S, Florida State
  • Perfect fit. Nasirlideen can play at safety or LB, and is physically incredible. Knack for forcing turnovers and he is a sure tackler, and although he has some coverage issues, he is still good vs. TEs and slot WRs at times. Philly gets a tone-setter at LB, their biggest need, or at S, arguably the 2nd biggest need.
TEN - Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
  • The battle is won in the trenches. The Titans don’t have many needs, but strengthening the OL is always a good idea.
MIA - Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
  • Miami is nailing the draft. Faalele is the most physically impressive prospect in this class, with great athleticism despite being 6 foot 9 inches and nearly 400 pounds. He’s a freak, and a perfect candidate to play at RT and protect Tua Tagovailoa’s blind side. Tua is very happy right now!
CHI - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC
  • Grabbing another athletic, and technically sound OL - Vera-Tucker fits Chicago’s needs well, especially with long-time starter Kyle Long retired.
NO - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
  • New Orleans needs a true #2 WR next to Michael Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders is the short-term for that. Toney is the long-term solution. Explosive YAC threat, Toney is a perfect fit in the West Coast offense that Sean Payton runs, and is seemingly uncatchable in the open field - and he comes with versatility, as a former QB; we know Sean Payton likes that.
BUF - Patrick Jones II, DE, Pittsburgh
  • The Bills need more from their DL to take their defense to the next level. Jerry Hughes is already 32, and by taking Jones, an explosive pass rusher with good technique and great size. Across from AJ Epenesa, Buffalo has two good EDGE rushers to anchor a DL and give Ed Oliver some help.
IND - Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
  • He does not have very much burst or an elite first step, but Hutchinson’s pursuit ability, motor, and strength are up there with the best. He’s inexperienced but he has a good assortment of pass rush moves, and offers versatility too - he is 280 pounds. IND gets a guy that they can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DE, the three tech, or even 3-4 OLB if needed.
ARI - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
  • Crazy talented athlete, Campbell is raw but he has a ton of potential. Great hips, great recovery speed, and he can run with anyone. Good size, he’s a player that can play in most if not all schemes, with the ability to play bump and run, press, zone, or man.
GB - Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
  • Adding two explosive weapons to an offense that already had Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is stupid. That’s exactly what happens here - Green Bay grabs their TE of the future, in Jordan. Jordan is a gifted athlete with a lot of speed and explosiveness, built in the molds of the new wave of TEs like George Kittle, Noah Fant, and more. Green Bay now has weapons everywhere and are poised for the short-term with Rodgers, and the long term with Love.
BAL - Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina
  • They took Patrick Queen last year, but they still need one more guy on that defense. While they have a pressing need at safety, Surratt’s potential is too much to pass up. Super talented with instincts, Surratt is a former QB and inexperienced, yet he has shown massive ability. High character and the leader the Ravens need on defense.
TB - Alec Lindstrom, OG, Boston College
  • Always pick the OL when unsure. Lindstrom is polished and although he does not possess a high ceiling, he should be a good starter in the NFL for a long time. Protect Brady.
PIT - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
  • Joe Haden is aging and Pittsburgh needs a boost of youth in the secondary to match Minkah Fitzpatrick. Horn has been one of the breakout stars this college season, and it’s a wonder he even dropped this far.
KC - Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
  • LDT’s status is unclear beyond this season, and besides, the Chiefs have needed a boost in the OL for a while. This is a trend - contending teams without weaknesses will almost always opt to strengthen the trenches.
SEA - Joe Tryon, DE, Washington
  • Tryon is far from a finished product but would represent the most hope Seattle has had at pass rush in a very long time. He is big, lengthy, has good burst, and good hand placement, and has a very high ceiling. The UW product stays in Seattle.

3rd round:

NYJ - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
  • If the CB class was not so stacked this year, Stokes would have had a shot to go in the 1st. Either way, the Jets grab a talented, twitchy corner from Georgia with a knack for forcing turnovers. Stokes can be a #1 CB if developed correctly. Great in press coverage especially.
JAX - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
  • Justin Fields’ favorite target joins him in Jacksonville. He is really polished in everything a WR needs - great route runner, great hands, and he can contort his body to make some tough catches. He is limited physically, that frame is not going to be able to take an NFL season. He is going to have to bulk up, but Fields gets a classic #2 WR who can play in the slot or outside.
WAS - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
  • Scheme-versatile, athletic, physical. He checks most boxes - he needs work on his technique, specifically when he comes out of his stance, but moving him to guard would eliminate that need. He can anchor himself well too.
NYG - Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
  • Prototypical X WR that fits well next to Darius Slayton. Williams cannot separate much, but with his hands and body control, is a great possession WR who will consistently make contested catches. Red-zone threat with upside.
CIN - Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
  • Two-down run defender with upside. He’s got a lot of athleticism and improving technique, but outside of the run-game, he can’t do much right now. Good fit, both for Cincinnati’s needs and also scheme.
DAL - Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson
  • Weird prospect. He switched from WR to CB in college, so he is still clearly learning the nuances of being a corner, but you can see what he can be vs. what he is now. Kendrick is not going to wow anyone for a while, but if Dallas can develop him right, he can be very good. Very much a long-term pickup.
LAC - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
  • He is really good with the play in front of him, classic slot corner. Good acceleration and he is a good tackler. He’s scheme-versatile, and with good hips, he can play off-man and press if needed. Good and easy replacement for Desmond King in the slot for the Chargers, especially with the aging Chris Harris. Samuel can get bullied by bigger WRs so DCs need to be careful with matchups, at least til he can get stronger.
DET - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
  • Quandre Diggs being traded last season left a gaping hole in their secondary. Moehrig is a very good centerfield type safety with ball hawking ability and really good instincts. He’s got issues tackling, but most deep safeties have the same issues. Big time potential.
HOU - Alaric Jackson, OG, Iowa
  • Protecting DeShaun Watson needs to be the goal - Jackson is a good fit for Houston. Strong with good athleticism, Jackson has played at tackle for a long time at Iowa, but his flexibility and length limit him. He will move to guard - but that’s exactly what Houston needs.
DEN - Monty Rice, LB, Georgia
  • A tough inside LB with good closing speed and size, Rice is a good candidate as a WILL LB with coverage skills as well. He is a step late on some plays while diagnosing - which along with his size prevents him from playing at midde linebacker.
ATL - D’Eriq King, QB, Miami
  • Surprise! Well, not really. I expect Atlanta to hire a modern OC, and that means a modern QB is needed. King fits the bill as a dual-threat QB with a great arm. I really like his feel for the game, his arm talent, his improving accuracy, and anticipation, and the natural ability to extend plays and make throws on the run or scramble is great too. King may be undersized, but he makes up for it with his elusiveness and build. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson succeeded, King can as well. Why not pick Trey Lance in the 1st? No matter what, the QB they pick will be a project. It would be better to invest in other positions early, and still grab the QB of the future late. He’s not Quinton Flowers, or JT Barrett - he’s much more. Great anticipation, strong arm, and he makes plays.
MIN - Azeez Ojulari, DE, Georgia
  • Really good bend and speed off the EDGE. He is another raw EDGE rusher, which is plentiful in this draft - but Minnesota needs a guy they can develop, just as they did with Danielle Hunter.
WAS - Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma
  • Weapons, weapons, weapons. Wilson needs all he can get, and now he has two talented WRs in Surratt and McLaurin, and Calcaterra joins that group. There are massive injury concerns with Calcaterra - he retired due to concussions and then returned earlier this season - but when he was healthy, he was considered a top TE in College Football. This is very much a bet for Washington, but it could pay off massive dividends.
NE - VOIDED by NFL
CAR - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
  • NFL-ready frame and he’s got really good length. He can hold his own against most pass rushers, speed or power. Athleticism is average though - he is better off in a power-scheme more than anything else.
LV - Cade Mays, OG, Tennessee
  • Nasty and strong, especially in the run game. Jon Gruden will love this guy, but he needs to get more disciplined especially with his footwork and stance - when he maintains his leverage, he is elite. Needs to get more polished but the potential is there.
CLE - Richard LeCounte III, S, Georgia
  • Size is an issue with LeCounte, but his ball skills and instincts are great, as is his football IQ. He will be able to start Day One in the NFL - and with Grant Delpit at SS, LeCounte is a nice pairing at FS. Browns strengthen the defense again.
LAR - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
  • Rams biggest need is probably LB - but they wait til the 3rd to grab one. Bolton is a monster in the run-game, super hard hitter and he’s got good instincts to guess the gap and go. He’s limited in the passing game, but once again - he’s got plenty of time and potential to iron that out. Better in zone, as most LBs are.
PHI - Kary Vincent Jr, CB, LSU
  • Really good slot corner. Super twitchy with really quick feet - he can mirror anyone in the slot. The problem is with his size - but in general, this guy can play. He needs work on his tackling and hand fighting at the line but as a man-coverage type, Philly can’t get much better at this point in the draft.
TEN - Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
  • He’s just good at everything. Not a game-changing playmaker at TE, but he gets the job done and can do anything asked of a TE. Tennessee will love his blocking and good athleticism.
MIA - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
  • As if Miami wasn’t already nailing this draft, this puts the cherry on top. Harris in the 3rd is incredible value - he’s physical, fast, elusive, and does everything a RB is supposed to do. Every-down RB. TD machine and he will always fall forward - he’s the alpha they need at RB, and a good compliment to Myles Gaskin. Another familiar face for Tua Tagovailoa.
CHI - Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn
  • The Bears need that extra #2 WR, Schwartz brings exactly that. Anthony Miller is better off in the slot, and while Allen Robinson is awesome, both Miller and Robinson cannot take the top off a defense like Schwartz can. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands and is still improving. His frame is very flimsy however, and he’s got some issues blocking - but you can see his role in Matt Nagy’s offense.
CLE - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
  • They need a space eater next to Myles Garrett. Onwuzurike brings that and more to the table.
BUF - Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina
  • Gabriel Davis and Stefan Diggs are great, but Buffalo lacks a threat at slot WR - John Brown and Cole Beasley are again. Newsome is explosive, lightning quick, and has very good route running and elusiveness in the open field.
IND - Shaka Toney, DE, Penn State
  • Another DE? Justin Houston is aging, and if Indianapolis wants to keep building their defense, this is necessary to give DeForest Buckner some help. Toney is not ready to be an every-down player, but as most Penn State products are - he is gifted as an athlete. He’s got plenty of potential as a pass rusher.
ARI - Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia
  • There are questions about his run defense and is not disciplined as a DT should be. He more than makes up for it with his disruptiveness as a pass rusher. Rare get-off for a DT, and his size lends hm and advantage because he is so powerful and fast with good leverage.
GB - Jack Sanborn, LB, Wisconsin
  • Hard hitter with ball production tends to work out in the NFL. He’s a fine athlete and is a quick diagnosed of plays, and while his run defense is great, his coverage skills are better. Not often does a LB log multiple interceptions in one season, but Sanborn did just that. Do-it-all LB for the Packers, although he has some limitations.
MIN - Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston
  • Versatile weapon with a ton of speed and elusiveness. The production matches the skillset, and he brings the presence the Vikings need next to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen for the next couple of years.
TB - Kolby Harvell-Peel, S, Oklahoma State
  • He isn’t much of a coverage safety, but Harvell-Peel is a fantastic run defender and tackler at safety. He’s not a liability, but he is not someone you want covering the back-end on third down either way. Harvell-Peel gives Bruce Arians a piece that he can shift anywhere, from LB to SS to slot CB if necessary, and he can get physical in the trenches and hold his own.
PIT - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State
  • Ruckert is a smooth athlete at TE and a very good blocker too. Despite not having much opportunity at OSU, Ruckert made the most of it - he’s got great hands as well. Pittsburgh grabs the future safety blanket for Kyle Trask… and forms a duo with Eric Ebron.
KC - Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford
  • Reinforcing this defense again. Adebo is a good zone and press corner. He’s got limitations, but he’s still developing and could be very good in the future.
NYJ - Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
  • If you ain’t noticed a trend by now, I don’t know what to say. But really, the Jets know that they aren’t exactly enticing for Lawrence. Making it feel like home for him is very important, both for his development and also for the future. They’ve alienated their defensive savant in Jamal Adams, they can’t have this happen again. Ross is mega-talented, but his neck injury last season caused him to drop from a 1st round prospect to a late 3rd prospect. Regardless, if the Jets can get Denzel Mims, Justyn Ross, Travis Etienne, plus two bookend tackles in Mekhi Becton and Jackson Carman - Trevor Lawrence has something he can work with. Ross is a prototypical #1 WR, with height-weight-speed measurements perfect and the production to back it up.
submitted by riqonator to NFL_Draft

A short and long term solution to the "Empty world" problem in Genshin Impact

The following post intends to suggest a short term and long term solution to the late game lack of exploration/continued play stimuli and maybe even the Resin shudders issue.

Also, I would highly recommend reading:
I will be referring to some values calculated by u/Iracy7, in this post, while the weapon leveling value used in the final result is wildly incorrect (posted: 20 days, actual cost assuming max farm efficiency: 1\2days, the other values seem reasonable and will result in roughly) a month of farming to take a character from 0 to 70 with proper gear if you farm every single necessary resource at maximum efficiency every single day.

Update:

I've just received an official (Mihoyo staff) notice that Reddit threads outside of the megathread are being removed to ease the moderators work. It was recommended that I move this to a google doc, so thats what I'm going to do.
Link to the doc: Journey System
Official forums post: here
I don't know where I could continue to take feedback on the idea so I'm taking suggestions.

The problems for the people

There are currently several problems the community has found with the game so far but I will list the ones I'm aware of and trying to think of a way to solve with the help of the community.
  1. Resin: There are many complaints about the system, plenty of them involve the limit on meaningfull playtime being relegated to 10-50min
  2. Progression: People don't want to wait a month worth of time to grind their characters to their maximum achievable level. This also ties into resin in a way since exp and mora can be obtained through resin.
  3. Boredom: After around AR30 most chests have been found and enemy camps become scarce and unrewarding, there are no more oculi nor seelies to find and if you've finished the storyline available (~AR35) then the world feels completely empty in comparison to the initial GI experience.
TLDR: People want to play more of the game. There is no proper continuous gameplay loop (something you can keep doing indefinetely). And just asking people to roam around Teyvat trying to find mobs that have a low chance of dropping a 1* artifact does not caracterize a proper gameplay loop.

Mihoyo is a company and profit IS important

As pointed by u/Vartio the solutions must take the business side into account. I currently work as a Unreal/Unity dev and while 100mil is plenty of burst cash, its not something that will last forever while paying their 500-1k employees. Considering the minimum employee count and only 2000$ a month for each (very low for a lot of tech positions) this results in ~67 months of sustained development, since the game took around 3 years and 8 months to develop (44 months total) then this means they should have around 23 months of sustained development time from that money to further develop the game, and they must achieve profit to appease the higher ups.
It would be great to know the actual analytics of the game but I will proceed with this post considering the biggest draw for cash in this game are the character banners and not the use of genesis crystals -> primogens -> daily resin refills. I believe thats the case since the Resin is a daily refill of a resource that is not really aesthetically appealing and also require you to put effort and time (time is really key here) into converting such resource into what you are actually looking for (Artifacts/Exp/Boss drops/books) and that is after the genesis conversion to primogems. Meanwhile the banners have a conversion from genesis crystals to primogens(very fast) and then you are only 1 prompt away from a beautifully animated pull with usefull weapons for refinement/weapon exp and maybe a new/usefull/interesting character with gorgeous design and phenomenal voice acting that will either immediately strengthen your party if its a duplicate or make you extremely excited to try them out.
And thats where we hit a big issue. People can't try out new characters if they can't level them up. that is awfull for the money perspective. It takes away the point of the massive investment on the quality of these characters. I for once find Klee to be absolutely adorable and the basic attack that proc elements, effectively mine, destroy both geo and other fatui shields (not affected by the melee DMG reduction) make her a very attractive option as a party member. However, I can't afford to bring her up to speed with my current party, and having her get one shotted in the overworld makes me not even want to have her out in the field even for just exploration.
Other posts that tackle this situation: 1(Reddit), 2(Reddit), 3 (Forbes)
In short, Primogems are the most important resource for using the gacha system and I imagine thats where most of the money comes from, while character exp, artifacts and mora are the most important resources for advancing the game and making the overworld exploration worth it. Not having the advancing/leveling resources serves as a detriment to the desire of getting new characters. Thats less money. The rates are low enough that most F2Players are not gonna buy genesis crystals, but the value of the Blessing of the Welkin Moon (BWM) is probably enough to get the F2Players if they spend enough time in the game (I know I would purchase it every month as long as I'm playing).
I also believe rewarding extended play with more primogems (enough for a daily wish on top of the commission rewards) could maybe play enough into the banner urgency factor. F2Players that are close to their pity pull would maybe get the genesis crystals missing to hit the pity. In the current state buying genesis crystals require too much cash for too little reward for people with only 300$ of disposable income but 5h/day of disposable time, but the offer will be far more attractive if the exposure to the gacha system is more frequent. I know of at least 11 other players that will not touch the system untill another banner rolls in since they know they are not even close to having enough resources to hit the 5* pity counter in time. Reaching that edge of missing only 10 pulls while having only 5 hours left to purchase in the limited character banner is what I think will break the first purchase barrier for many. But that can only happen if they experience the gacha system more frequently.
TLDR: There is no point in getting new characters and spending money in the gacha system if players can't level that character up. You will not help many players break the first purchase barrier if they can't engage in the gacha system with enough frequency. Getting more people into spending is better for sustainability and extended development and there is much content still on the roadmap.

Acknowledgements

The way to solve these problems must encompass the desires of both the people and the company.
While many complain about the Resin System, plenty of the problems caused by it are due to the lack of availability of the resources obtained by spending resin.The biggest culprits when it comes to those resources are talent books and boss drops for ascension of the main party and character experience for newly acquired characters + mora for pretty much everything.
When it comes to the time for maxing out a character the biggest culprit is character exp (11 days of optimal farming). Plus the ascension materials that can be farmed within 3 days of extended playtime, which I believe its fair.
When it comes to gearing up a character the biggest culprit is artifacts taking a whopping 16 days to get enough to fully level some 4*s.
Now if you remove those times (occupied by artifacts and character exp), its possible to max out a lvl 70 character in around a week with optimal farming due to the mora constraints. And while that may sound too much for some, it seems fine for me, its a month to get a entirelly new party up to speed for doing Abyss/Exploration, that seems pretty reasonable.
TLDR: Lack of mora,char exp and artifacts are the main source of player dissatisfaction when it comes to resources, lack of guided activities is a major problem as well, both get in the way of players and the company's profit.

My proposals

I know some people will not like this, but my solution for the current situation does not involve a rework/removal of the resin system. But instead alternate means of obtaining the most restrictive resources in terms of time investment (artifacts, Mora and Character exp) through what I believe is GIs strongest point, exploration.
The solution would come in 2 parts, one for the short term since the amount of rage against the current situation is massive. It will not solve the issue completely but should be a great measure in terms of return in player satisfaction per effort to implement. And another for the long term meant to solve the problem from the game while increasing sustained engagement and offering more spending options for players.

Short term

Previously collected Common and Exquisite chests respawn
  • Suggested rate: 80-100¹ a day with 3/4 being exquisite
  • They should be guarded by monsters/puzzles whenever possible to extend engagement time
  • If there is not enough chest locations for all daily respawns to happen, they will spawn untill all available locations are filled with extra spawns simply not happening
  • Players would each have a chest pool that would fill at the rate above (capped at 700), as players reach a new instanced sub-region/sub-scene (when monsters/puzzles/chests are loaded) this pool would be used to populate the place, when the player leaves the region unnopened chests enlist themselves back into the pool. This happens until the pool is depleted. (credits to u/JumpingJackFlashMike for pointing out chests would still be hard to come across, I believe this fixes that issue)
  • They should NOT award AR exp²
  • They should keep awarding 1-2 primogens each³
  1. This should fill the world with content to explore every week so people that only log in on weekends can enjoy the exploration to its full extent while grinders have enough places to farm for resources each day.
  2. You've collected this before so its not a new experience (lore explanation), Throttiling AR is important and not having it entirelly tied to quests,teleports,statues was a mistake in my opinion. As it is, players can reach max rank before there is quest content appropriate for that rank that will hamper the desire to complete new content if things are not scaled properly and make balancing more difficult. That being said the game currently does not have a proper gameplay loop so players need the AR gain as the drive for engagement. This is a band-aid measure that I believe is already costing more than its helping since the abyss is balanced for maxed out characters so people want to achieve maxed characters even if there is no proper storyline progression to support that climb in power level and AR. The max AR for the current state of the game should be 35-40 and the endgame content should expand as the actual game content does so things are kept balanced and engaging.
  3. As previously stated, in the current state, engagement with the gacha system is far too low due to lack of free sources of wishes/primogems, I actually believe it should be 2(common) and 5(exquisite) primogems but I don't wanna push too much and get this measure overlooked entirelly. With 700 chests to open during the weekend giving an average of 1.75 primogens each, thats around 1200 primogems, thats almost enough for a weekly 10 pull and if you did all comissions everyday then its enough for a 10 pull. That should be the minimal engagement with the system to make it at least somewhat attractive. with the 2-5 primogems per common-exquisite chest its around 2800 per week or 3220 if you've done your daily comissions thats 2 weekly pulls for highly dedicated players which I believe to be close to the ideal rate of engagement since it amounts to 80 pulls a month, close enough to the pity amount to maybe drive some Genesis Crystal sales. The optimal would be enough to get 70-80 pulls per limited character event banner duration consistently but since this is only the short term measure and the long term one will also involve primogem rewards, it might be worth it to consider using the 1-2 primogem rewards even if the situation seems dire for now, since the long term system is something that will greatly help with the gameplay loop problem.
This measure can come in phases since it tackles a very urgent issue and can't take long to begin taking effect and stopping the current imminent drop of a significant amount of the playerbase.
The first phase should just have the system respawn previously opened chests that are unguarded. Since there will be no puzzle/monsters to keep track of/respawn synched with the chest it should be quicker to implement.
The second phase should tackle the easiest of the two options monster protected chest respawn or puzzle locked chest respawn.
The third one should be directed at making proper UI/tutorials/resources for explaining the respawning chest mechanic. I.E. Paimon - "Don't be afraid to collect every single chest, they come back after some time, since monsters always have new adventurer loot to store. I don't wanna think about where they got that loot from though..."
The fourth one should prepare the respawning chest system for the Journey system, described in the Long term section of this post
All of these should be permeated with surveys to check if high AR players are noticing the respawns (if the spawn rate is significant), if they are engaged (if the measure was effective), if the rewards are balanced and if that has alleviated the resin issue after all exquisite chests can drop talent books.

TLDR: Previously collected chests should respawn togheter with their puzzles/enemy guards. They should spawn at a rate that will fill the world with treasure in about a week.

Long term

What I'm going to describe is a system that will take a good chunk of time to implement but would go a long way to provide longevity for the game.
Introducing the Journey System (bounty was already taken):
  • Players can engage with the system by either talking to an NPC, a board or an option in Paimon menu (whichever is best for Mihoyo) I'd suggest having an NPC to introduce the system/spend journey rewards and a board for starting/choosing journeys, they should be geographicaly close to each other.
  • A journey is a guided exploration experience comprised of 8-20 encounters. They are divided by length in Short(8), Regular(14) and Epic(20) encounter journeys. And titled based on the last encounter: "Defeat the shielded mitachurl in Dadaupa Gorge"(Short), "Retrieve Lisa's book from the Abyss mages" (Regular), "Investigate the rising temperature near Luhua Pool"(Epic, ends with fighting Pyroregisvine).
  • An encounter consists of any previously cleared monster camp/puzzle/boss/elite boss/domain and anything else Mihoyo manages to add to the open world that could be repeatable, have their chest rewards customized and trigger a step of progress on the Journey System.
  • At any time there will be 3 journeys, one of each length, available on the board until the player picks one. Then the player will have that journey tracked similar to a quest and be unable to chose another journey until the current one is completed or abandoned.
  • Journeys are proceduraly generated, there will be a list of viable last encounters internally on the server for each Journey type, a random viable one would be selected to be displayed on the board for each of the journeys and display the encounter description. When a journey is selected, the board generates a journey of that type with the selected last encounter by:
    • Choosing a viable location for the last encounter
    • Doing a Physics.OverlapCircle around the selected area to find nearby viable encounter locations until there are enough for the journey type
    • populating each encounter with the appropriate mobs given the difficulty curve and region (Lyiue/Monstadt) and the chests
    • After that a prompt to navigate to the first encounter will appear and completing all encounters unlocks the final one. That or you have to beat each encounter in order to unlock the next (might cause visible mob spawning, but I wouldn't mind).
  • Difficulty wise journeys should be as hard as their length, with Short ones being easily cleared, regular ones taking some effort and Epic ones taking a properly built team with decent gear.
  • Rewards can be given during and/or at the end of each journey.
  • There are 2 structures for the rewards that can be implemented. A new currency type (lets call it Jpoints for now) that is awarded for each journey encounter with a higher amount being awarded at the end. The other being chests placed on each encounter and at the end of the journey.
My suggestions for the system structure/balancing:
  • Having minor rewards along the way with massive rewards by the end depending on the length of the journey.
  • The reward type distribution for the encounters and end of journey should be based on the length of the journey (amount of total encounters)
Encounter count Chests type Journey points
1-4 Common 10
5-13 Exquisite 20
14-19 Precious 40
20 Luxurious 100
Also the last encounter (end of journey) will have 3 times the amount of chests of the corresponding type and/or Jpoints. I.E. A Regular(14 encounter) journey would feature 4 common chests/40 Jpoints in the first 4 encounters then exquisite chests in encounters 5 through 13/180 Jpoints total and in the last 14th encounter they will be rewarded with 3 precious chests/120 Jpoints. This totals to 4 common chests, 9 exquisite chests and 3 precious chests and/or 340 Jpoints.
  • As for difficulty:
The monsters are presented in the format -> monster type(relation to expected average character level) I.E. if the expected character level for the given world level is 60 and a monster is supposed to be level 55, it would appear like this: monster name(-5)
Journey length Monter type at the start of the journey Monter types by the end of the journey Suggested last monster
Short Basic Hilichurls(-10) Whopperflowers(-5) Whopperflower(0) or Shielded Mitachurl(-2)
Regular Shield Hilichurls(0) with Samachurls (-5) Abyss Mages (-5) or Geovishap Hatchlings(-5) 3x Abyss Mages (0) or 2x Cicin mages (0)
Epic Geo shield Hilichurls (-5) with elemental Archer Hilichurls(-5) / Treasure hoarders(0) Rock shieldwall Mitachurls(0) or Ruin guards(0) with plenty of lesser mobs 2x Ruin Hunters (+5) or 3x Fatui Agents/Skirmishers(+5)
  • As for rewards:
I mentioned 2 reward types, chests and Jpoints, however the ideal would be both since chests are fully randomized and there could be a shop with the Journey NPC that trades journey points for specific resources.
Why not just journey points then? Well chests are VERY satisfying to open, while just seeing the Jpoints number go up after clearing an encounter would feel just... good, but not enough to maybe keep doing this every day.
Would those chests award AR exp? No, as stated in the short term solution, providing a way to endlessly grind AR while the game does not have all of its story content in place is really detrimental IMO.
Would those chest reward primogems? Maybe. I think primogems should be rewarded mostly at the end of each journey, something like 60/100/240 total sounds like great number for me. I hope Epic journeys to take around 40-80minutes and 3 primogems a minute for a tough challenge sounds fair. Maybe Mihoyo disagrees, but like I said before, keeping players from touching the gacha system for too long will hurt the bottom line, there has to be just enough exposure to hook them.
  • Other expected questions:
Do you think Mihoyo would ever do something this cool? I believe Mihoyo is secretly developing something similar to this specially since they already reserved the name Bounty (which I pray to be a similar system to this). But this is pure speculation.
What are the expected rewards to be gained daily? Assuming you always do the same journey type:
Journey type Expected Jpoints / journey Expected clear time (minutes) Expected Jpoints / hour Expected chests / hour
Short 160 10-30 480 12C + 18E
Regular 340 30-50 510 6C + 14E + 5P
Epic 740 40-80 740 4C + 9E + 6P + 3L
What would the Journey shop sell? There would be 3 sections of the shop, with the nomad's offerings (limited time and stock offers that change weekly), the Limited goods (fixed selection of items with limited stock that refreshes monthly/weekly) and Journey exchange post (fixed selection of items with unlimited stock).
Suggestions for each include:
  • Nomad's Offerings
Item type Jpoints cost (per unit) Available stock
Cycling 4* character of a set pool (the pool contains 8 characters that can appear in this slot that are expected for F2P users) 20000 1
Cycling prototype weapon material 5000 1
Random 3*/4* Claymore 1000/10000 1
Random 3*/4* Sword 1000/10000 1
Random 3*/4* Spear 1000/10000 1
Random 3*/4* Catalyst 1000/10000 1
Random 3*/4* Bow 1000/10000 1
Random Skin (when added) 8000 1
Random furniture (when/if added) 3000 1
Note: only one of the weapon types offered will be 4\ at any time)
  • Limited Goods
Item Jpoints cost (per unit) Available stock
Fragile Resin 400 14
Acquaint fate 1000 10
Intertwined fate 1000 10
  • Journey Exchange Post
Item Jpoints cost (per unit)
Adventurer's experience 10
200 Mora 1
(locked by AR20) Random 3* artifact 30
(locked by AR30) Random 4* artifact 120
(locked by AR40) Random 5* artifact 500

How would all this be monetized?
Since the entire system draws power from time investment which is pretty common to be the most demanded currency from F2Players, I'd suggest making a high value monthly deal:
The Journeyman's pocket guide/Blessing can be purchased for 5-15$ and grants you 3-5x Jpoints gain for an entire month, thats a pretty sweet deal, and greatly accelerates character leveling.
Supply packs of Jpoints / Genesis crystal conversion to Jpoints ("who said the Journey NPC can't be bribed?"), suggested rate 1 genesis crystal -> 10 Jpoints
Nomads favor can be purchased for 10-20$ and grants you the current nomad offered character, skin and furniture + the current 4* weapon in a neat package.

Considerations

  • Having this work on co-op might be difficult but would be a phenomenal way to promote co-op mode if the rewards (Jpoints + chest drops) could be shared.
  • It might be worth time gating the refresh of each journey type by having its cooldown after acceptance match the time expected for completion listed in this post (20/40/60 minutes). We don't want people rushing like absolute madmans through the journeys trying to min/max the hell out of their party. As some wise guy at Wizards of the coast or GGG (I think) once said: "Players will optimize the fun out of your game if you let them".
  • If there is a need to do this implementation in phases as well thats alright but I think it would be a more impactfull update it it came up fully working. It could be announced 3 months before being ready with a beta test in order to start building hype. Ithink players would love to at least know something like this is coming.

Possible/common questions

**Why is this post so disorganized/made use of feature x or y?**This is my first Reddit post, letting me know what is wrong will help me improve the post.
Why did you make such a long post as your first one?
After joining the Genshin Impact discord server it came to my attention that the posts deemed more relevant were posted on Reddit and were very detailed in their description. Since I already had a decently fleshed out idea of what I thought would improve the game I decided to create the Reddit account.
Why are you defending the resin system?
Because I think its but a shadow of a far more concerning issue, which is the lack of a repeatable and rewarding gameplay loop that benefits players that are engaged and deeply in love with the game's experience, or at least what was experienced in their first 2-3 weeks of play.
You wouldn't say this if you were AR4x+!
Maybe, enlighten me as to why please. I'm currently at AR37, 0 quests left to do, can't find a chest for the life of me, missing 2 documented seelies, all timed challenges done, all oculi collected. As of right now I don't see why I wouldn't understand the problem yet.
Hey OP do you take constructive criticism?
Heck yeah! Specially if you think of ways to increase the chances of this getting seen/approved by Mihoyo
Would you allow Mihoyo to just take your idea and run?
It would be my pleasure, no credit needed. After all my idea is derived from systems I've experienced in other games that tackled the issue of lack of repeatable content.
What do you expect from posting this?
The dream is to get Mihoyo to implement a similar or outright clone this system. The hope is getting the playerbase to help me refine this and shape it to be a plausible solution. I've only made premium style games before (pay once get everything) so having the help and opinions of gacha veterans would really help with shaping this post.
Anything you would have liked to do in this post but couldn't?
Polls, I think people can do polls on reddit but I might be wrong. I would really like to know the percentage of people that would buy the Blessing of the Welking Moon monthly should the game get an update with the contents of this post and the amount of players that would be willing to buy any of the monetization options offered here. Personally I feel like Genshin Impact would deserve a monthly 10-20$ depending on how well they could maintain the joy I felt in the first 2 weeks.If anyone knows how to do polls let me know, thanks.
Summary: Genshin Impact suffers from a severe lack of stimuli for continued exploration in the available late-game. Another issue is the cap of obtainable character experience and Mora required to level new characters. The first issue will push both whales and F2Players away over time (not long) and the second one severely damages the desire to engage in the gacha system since getting a new character is meaningless if you can't engage the current content with it. It is important for the game to have sustained development funds to keep the content flowing and the devs paid, so solving these issues is a must. Having chests respawn would alleviate the first issue since chest include the most restrictive rewards in the late-game. That should keep the F2Players engaged for at least one more month post 1.1, after that starting development on a system similar or equal to the Journey System should keep the F2Players engaged for a period long enough to start breaking their first purchase barrier. Until such system is developed its recommended that events be far more abundant when it comes to their rewards in primogems, since players need a minimal level of exposure to the gacha system and need to see minimal results coming from it to even consider a purchase. So 10x wishes should be an occurrence every player has at least 4x a month consistently on the analytics, if this is not being achieved then one of the greatest drives of a gacha game (the actual gacha) can be considered unsuccessful in capitalizing on the potential it has given the game reached such high engagement on PC and PS4.
TLDR: The game needs more chests and/or ways to get resources, this will be good for whales, F2Players and the bottom line of the company.
(Edit) u/Tigger3584's TLDR version:
Issues
When you get to lategame, there's nothing left to explore, so the game gets stale. The limit on Mora and EXP is an issue for F2P and whales as well- what's the point of pulling new characters if you can't level them?
Solutions
Rework chests- remove AR EXP from rewards and replace with a few prismogems. Also increasing chest respawn rates & adding mobs. Also introduce some sort of new system to take combat quests, with the ability to earn more better rewards for longer ones. The new system uses some sort of point system- that allows players to exchange for 4* characters, weapons, materals, etc. on a rotating schedule.
Solution Explanation
Removing AR EXP from chests slows down AR progression and gives MiHoYo more time between expansions. Extra prismogems incentivizes players to keep grinding for the gacha. The new combat quest system allows resources to not be bottlenecked and for MiHoYo to create a monthly pass for it.
Thank you for reading and have a nice day!
submitted by PHDBR to Genshin_Impact

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